Ultimate Sources of Aggregate Variability
What, ultimately, is different from quarter to quarter or year to year that accounts for the fact that macroeconomic variables change over these intervals? That is, which are the biggest ultimate sources, in terms we may say of tastes, technology, endowments, government policy, industrial organization, labor-management relations, speculative behavior, or the like, that change to cause this variability? There are a bewildering variety of claims in the literature for such ultimate sources. Far fewer efforts have been made to give a breakdown of the variance of macroeconomic aggregates by source. The two notable such breakdowns to date are by Bigou (1929) and Fair (1987). The nature of the evidence for such breakdowns is discussed here, and the possibility that a partial breakdown may be well-determined is put forward. An unsuccessful attempt is made to detect a component of macroeconomic fluctuations that is due to the weather.
|Date of creation:||Jan 1987|
|Publication status:||published as American Economic Review, vol. 77, no. 2 pp. 87-92 May 1987|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1987.
"Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
833R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 1988.
- Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation," NBER Working Papers 2233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter M. Garber & Robert G. King, 1983. "Deep Structral Excavation? A Critique of Euler Equation Methods," NBER Technical Working Papers 0031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)