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Why Do Analysts Disagree ?


  • Jean-Sébastien Michel
  • J. Ari Pandes


This paper finds that about one-quarter of analyst forecast dispersion and one-half of the dispersion-return relationship between 1985 and 2012 are explained by analyst overconfidence. In particular, the firm’s analyst overconfidence mean and analyst overconfidence dispersion are the two most significant determinants of analyst forecast dispersion. Together, these two variables capture 77% of the explained variation in analyst forecast dispersion when all known determinants are considered. With respect to the dispersion-return relationship, the analyst forecast dispersion predicted by analyst overconfidence leads to a monthly hedging portfolio profit of 0.35% compared to a profit of 0.37% for the analyst forecast dispersion not predicted by analyst overconfidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Sébastien Michel & J. Ari Pandes, 2013. "Why Do Analysts Disagree ?," Cahiers de recherche 1305, CIRPEE.
  • Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1305

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Antoine Bommier & Marie-Louise Leroux & Jean-Marie Lozachmeur, 2011. "Differential mortality and social security," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(1), pages 273-289, February.
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    3. Antoine Bommier & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2012. "Risk Aversion and the Value of Risk to Life," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 79(1), pages 77-104, March.
    4. Kihlstrom, Richard E. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1974. "Risk aversion with many commodities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 361-388, July.
    5. Bommier, Antoine & Leroux, Marie-Louise & Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie, 2011. "On the public economics of annuities with differential mortality," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 612-623.
    6. Leroux, M.-L. & Pestieau, P. & Ponthiere, G., 2011. "Longevity, genes and efforts: An optimal taxation approach to prevention," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 62-76, January.
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    8. Cagetti, Marco, 2003. "Wealth Accumulation over the Life Cycle and Precautionary Savings," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(3), pages 339-353, July.
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    More about this item


    Analyst Overconfidence; Self-Attribution Bias; Analyst Forecast Dispersion; Stock Returns;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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