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Prospects and Policies for the Greek Economy

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  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou
  • Michalis Nikiforos
  • Gennaro Zezza

Abstract

In this report, we discuss alternative scenarios for restoring growth and increasing employment in the Greek economy, evaluating alternative policy options through our specially constructed macroeconometric model (LIMG). After reviewing recent events in 2013 that confirm our previous projections for an increase in the unemployment rate, we examine the likely impact of four policy options: (1) external help through Marshall Plan–type capital transfers to the government; (2) suspension of interest payments on public debt, instead using these resources for increasing demand and employment; (3) introduction of a parallel financial system that uses new government bonds; and (4) adoption of an employer-of-last-resort (ELR) program financed through the parallel financial system. We argue that the effectiveness of the different plans crucially depends on the price elasticity of the Greek trade sector. Since our analysis shows that such elasticity is low, our ELR policy option seems to provide the best strategy for a recovery, having immediate effects on the Greek population's standard of living while containing the effects on foreign debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2014. "Prospects and Policies for the Greek Economy," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_feb_14, Levy Economics Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_feb_14
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    File URL: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/sa_2_14.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arghyrou, Michael G & Tsoukalas, John D., 2010. "The Option Of Last Resort: A Two-Currency Emu," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2010/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2015. "Greece: Conditions and Strategies for Economic Recovery," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_gr_5_15, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, 2016. "Complementary Currencies and Economic Stability," Economics Policy Note Archive 16-1, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Massimo Amato & Luca Fantacci & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Gennaro Zezza, 2016. "Going Forward from B to A? Proposals for the Eurozone Crisis," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(3), pages 1-14, August.
    4. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & Michalis Nikiforos & Gennaro Zezza, 2016. "Greece: Getting Out of the Recession," Economics Strategic Analysis Archive sa_gr_9_16, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. C. J. Polychroniou, 2014. "Dead Economic Dogmas Trump Recovery: The Continuing Crisis in the Eurozone Periphery," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_133, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. repec:nov:artigo:v:25:y:2015:i:spe:p:777-802 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Terry McKinley, 2006. "The monopoly of global capital flows: Who needs structural adjustment now?," Working Papers 12, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    8. Rania Antonopoulos & Sofia Adam & Kijong Kim & Thomas Masterson & Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, 2014. "After Austerity: Measuring the Impact of a Job Guarantee Policy for Greece," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_138, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Richard H. Day & Chengyu Yang, 2011. "Economic Growth And The Effects Of Fiscal Policy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 218-234, February.

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