The Timing of School Exclusions and Its Consequences for Peers’ Outcomes

This paper examines how the timing of excluding disruptive pupils affects peer outcomes. While removing disruptive pupils may benefit classmates, delays in exclusion can impose costs. We interpret exclusion as determining the timing of removal and estimate the effects of earlier versus later exclusion using an instrumental variables approach based on exogenous variation in local capacity for excluded pupils. We find that exclusions in Year 9 generate the largest negative spillovers: an additional excluded pupil per 1,000 reduces GCSE Maths and English scores by 0.024 and 0.044 standard deviations, lowers Level 2 and Level 3 attainment by around 0.6 percentage points, and increases the probability of being NEET at age 21 by 0.62 percentage points. Effects vary by timing and pupil characteristics, with early exclusions linked to improved labour market outcomes and later exclusions associated with broader losses for disadvantaged pupils. We show that these effects are driven by prolonged exposure to disruptive behaviour prior to exclusion, proxied by accumulated suspension days. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of timely responses to disruption and the broader social costs of exclusionary discipline.