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Incentives and Outcomes in a Strategic Setting: The 3-Points-for-a-Win System in Soccer

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  • Moschini, Giancarlo

Abstract

I exploit a major structural change that has occurred in world soccer to study the impact of incentives on outcomes in a strategic setting. A game-theoretic model is developed that captures some essential strategic elements of soccer vis-à-vis the number of points awarded to a win. The observable implications of the model are tested using a large data set that spans 30 years and 35 countries. The empirical results support the theoretical model and show that the 3-point system has led to a statistically significant increase in the expected number of goals and a decrease in the fractions of drawn matches

Suggested Citation

  • Moschini, Giancarlo, 2010. "Incentives and Outcomes in a Strategic Setting: The 3-Points-for-a-Win System in Soccer," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800001216, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:201001010800001216
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    Cited by:

    1. Devriesere, Karel & Csató, László & Goossens, Dries, 2025. "Tournament design: A review from an operational research perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 1-21.
    2. Christian Deutscher & Arne Büschemann, 2016. "Does Performance Consistency Pay Off Financially for Players? Evidence From the Bundesliga," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(1), pages 27-43, January.
    3. L'aszl'o Csat'o, 2025. "A hidden benefit of incomplete round-robin tournaments: Encouraging offensive play," Papers 2509.13141, arXiv.org.
    4. Franck Egon & Theiler Philipp, 2012. "One for Sure or Maybe Three: Empirical Evidence for Overtime Play from a Comparison of Swiss Ice Hockey and the NHL," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(3), pages 210-223, June.
    5. Avila-Cano, Antonio & Owen, P. Dorian & Triguero-Ruiz, Francisco, 2023. "Measuring competitive balance in sports leagues that award bonus points, with an application to rugby union," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 939-952.
    6. Lee Yoong Hon & Rasyad A. Parinduri, 2016. "Does the Three-Point Rule Make Soccer More Exciting? Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(4), pages 377-395, May.
    7. Sandra Schneemann & Christian Deutscher, 2017. "Intermediate Information, Loss Aversion, And Effort: Empirical Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(4), pages 1759-1770, October.
    8. Gebrenegus Ghilagaber & Parfait Munezero, 2020. "Bayesian change-point modelling of the effects of 3-points-for-a-win rule in football," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 248-264, January.
    9. Peter-J. Jost, 2021. "“The ball is round, the game lasts 90 minutes, everything else is pure theoryâ€," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(1), pages 27-74, January.
    10. Dilger, Alexander & Froböse, Gerrit, 2018. "Effects of the three-point rule in German amateur football," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 3/2018, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.
    11. Rasyad A Parinduri & Yoong Hon Lee & Kung Ming Tiong, 2019. "The effects of bigger rewards in individual tournaments on efforts and risk taking: evidence from chess," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 979-995.
    12. Richard Duhautois & Romain Eyssautier, 2016. "La victoire à trois points dans le football a-t-elle rendu les équipes plus offensives ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 67(6), pages 1245-1254.
    13. Kenneth Linna & Evan Moore & Rodney Paul & Andrew Weinbach, 2014. "The Effects of the Clock and Kickoff Rule Changes on Actual and Market-Based Expected Scoring in NCAA Football," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-14, April.
    14. Robert Butler & Liam J. A. Lenten & Patrick Massey, 2020. "Bonus incentives and team effort levels: Evidence from the “Field”," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(5), pages 539-550, November.
    15. Alexander Dilger & Hannah Geyer, 2009. "Are Three Points for a Win Really Better Than Two?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 305-318, June.
    16. Levi Pérez, 2021. "Will We Lose If We Lose You? Players’ Absence, Teams’ Performance and the Overlapping of Competitions," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 722-734, August.
    17. Vincenzo Alfano & Lorenzo Cicatiello & Giuseppe Lucio Gaeta & Michele Gallo & Francesca Rotondo, 2021. "Three is a Magic Number: Evidence on the Effects of the Application of the Three-Point Rule in Italy’s Serie A," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 329-356, April.
    18. Ralf Dewenter & Julian Emami Namini, 2013. "How to Make Soccer More Attractive? Rewards for a Victory, the Teams' Offensiveness, and the Home Bias," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 65-86, February.
    19. Ricardo Manuel Santos, 2014. "Optimal Soccer Strategies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 183-200, January.
    20. Liam J.A. Lenten & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2013. "Policy Timing and Footballers' Incentives," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(6), pages 629-655, December.
    21. Francisco J. Bahamonde-Birke & Ramón Andrés Bahamonde-Birke, 2023. "About the “Away Goals Rule†in Association Football. Does Scrapping the Rule Increase the Fairness of the Game?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(3), pages 310-328, April.
    22. Paramahansa Pramanik & Alan M. Polansky, 2023. "Scoring a Goal Optimally in a Soccer Game Under Liouville-Like Quantum Gravity Action," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 1-39, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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