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Using a Farmer's Beta for Improved Estimation of Expected Yields

  • Carriquiry, Miguel A.
  • Babcock, Bruce A.
  • Hart, Chad E.

Effects of sampling error in estimation of farmers’ mean yields for crop insurance purposes and their implications for actuarial soundness are explored using farm-level corn yield data in Iowa. Results indicate that sampling error, combined with nonlinearities in the indemnity function, leads to empirically estimated insurance rates that exceed actuarially fair values. The difference depends on the coverage level, the number of observations used, and the participation strategy followed by farmers. A new estimator for mean yields based on the decomposition of farm yields into systemic and idiosyncratic components is proposed, which could lead to improved rate-making and reduce adverse selection.

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Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12937.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, April 2008, vol. 33 no. 1, pp. 52-68
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12937
Contact details of provider: Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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  1. Zanini, Fabio C. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Irwin, Scott H., 2001. "Crop Insurance Valuation Under Alternative Yield Distributions," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18953, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  2. Bharat Ramaswami & Terry L. Roe, 2004. "Aggregation in Area-Yield Crop Insurance: The Linear Additive Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 420-431.
  3. Olivier Mahul, 1999. "Optimum Area Yield Crop Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 75-82.
  4. Barnett, Barry J. & Black, J. Roy & Hu, Yingyao & Skees, Jerry R., 2005. "Is Area Yield Insurance Competitive with Farm Yield Insurance?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(02), August.
  5. James A. Vercammen, 2000. "Constrained Efficient Contracts for Area Yield Crop Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 856-864.
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