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Carbon Policy and Stock Returns: Signals from Financial Markets

Author

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  • Martina Hengge
  • Ugo Panizza
  • Mr. Richard Varghese

Abstract

This paper uses institutional features of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and highfrequency data on more than 2,000 publicly listed European firms over 2011–21 to study the impact of carbon policy on stock returns. After extracting the surprise component of regulatory actions, we show that events resulting in a higher carbon price lead to negative returns for firms with high emission intensities. This negative relationship is even stronger for firms in sectors which do not participate in the EU ETS. Taken together, our results indicate that investors price in transition risk stemming from the shift towards a low-carbon economy. We conclude that policies which increase carbon prices are effective in raising the cost of capital for emission intensive firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Martina Hengge & Ugo Panizza & Mr. Richard Varghese, 2023. "Carbon Policy and Stock Returns: Signals from Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 2023/013, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/013
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    Cited by:

    1. Le, Anh H., 2023. "Climate change and carbon policy: A story of optimal green macroprudential and capital flow management," IMFS Working Paper Series 191, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    2. Matzner, Anna & Steininger, Lea, 2024. "Firms’ heterogeneous (and unintended) investment response to carbon price increases," Working Paper Series 2958, European Central Bank.

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