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The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa


  • Mr. Bjoern Rother
  • Ms. Gaelle Pierre
  • Davide Lombardo
  • Risto Herrala
  • Ms. Priscilla Toffano
  • Mr. Erik Roos
  • Mr. Allan G Auclair
  • Ms. Karina Manasseh


In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Bjoern Rother & Ms. Gaelle Pierre & Davide Lombardo & Risto Herrala & Ms. Priscilla Toffano & Mr. Erik Roos & Mr. Allan G Auclair & Ms. Karina Manasseh, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2016/008, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfsdn:2016/008

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    Cited by:

    1. Hadzi-Vaskov Metodij & Pienknagura Samuel & Ricci Luca Antonio, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Social Unrest," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 917-958, June.
    2. Olaf J de Groot & Carlos Bozzoli & Anousheh Alamir & Tilman Brück, 2022. "The global economic burden of violent conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 259-276, March.
    3. Christopher A. Hartwell & Paul M. Vaaler, 2023. "The Price of Empire: Unrest Location and Sovereign Risk in Tsarist Russia," Papers 2309.06885,, revised Nov 2023.
    4. Justin George & Adesoji Adelaja & Dave Weatherspoon, 2020. "Armed Conflicts and Food Insecurity: Evidence from Boko Haram's Attacks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 114-131, January.
    5. Novta, Natalija & Pugacheva, Evgenia, 2021. "The macroeconomic costs of conflict," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.
    7. Rufei Zhang & Haizhen Zhang & Qingzhu Fan & Wang Gao & Xue Luo & Shixiong Yang, 2022. "Partisan Conflict, National Security Policy Uncertainty and Tourism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, August.
    8. Harrison Ng Chok & Judy Mannix & Cathy Dickson & Lesley Wilkes, 2019. "Shining a light on refugee nurses," Journal of Clinical Nursing, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(9-10), pages 1363-1364, May.
    9. Nadia Al-Rousan & Dana Al-Najjar & Hazem Al-Najjar, 2023. "Assessing the Impact of Syrian Refugee Influx on the Jordanian Stock Exchange Market," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, June.
    10. Nesru Kasim Banke & Mekonnen Kumlachew Yitayaw, 2022. "Deposit mobilization and its determinants: evidence from commercial banks in Ethiopia," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Grand, Nathalie & Kamaly, Ahmed, 2017. "On the guidelines of good planning : The case of the Arab region," MPRA Paper 84146, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Sak, Güven & Kaymaz, Timur & Kadkoy, Omar & Kenanoglu, Murat, 2017. "Forced migrants: Labour market integration and entrepreneurship," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).


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