Is Past Performance a Good Predictor of Future Potential?

Both assessment centres and 360 degree feedback have become very popular new era HR tools. With human resources gaining strategic importance combined with raising costs of talented managers and their scarce availability, organizations are left with no alternatives than identifying and grooming talent from within. This has led to the increased use of assessment centres and 360 degree tools for developing leadership competencies. Some times 360 degree feedback is used as tool for career development and succession planning. Sometimes assessment centres are used as predictors of fast track managers. However research on the predictive ability of ACs or 360 degree feedback is scant. This study is based on data gathered from three organizations that have conducted assessment centres as well as 360 degree feedback. In all three organizations ACs and 360 degree feedback were used as development tools. In all these organizations competency mapping was done and common competencies were identified using behaviour indicators. Competencies were assessed by external assessors and by their seniors, juniors, and colleagues on the same competency model. Results showed no definite patterns and lead to the conclusion that past performance as assessed by 360 degree feedback predictor of future potential as assessed by the assessment centres. The findings seem to be valid irrespective of the nature of competencies assessed and across various categories of employees. Given the lack of correlation, caution is necessary while using the data for promotion and succession planning exercises.