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Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve


  • Hong, Seung Hyun

    (Department of Economics, Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada)

  • Wagner, Martin

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria)


Recent years have seen a growing literature on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) that resorts in a large part to cointegration techniques. The EKC literature has failed to acknowledge that such regressions involve unit root nonstationary regressors and their integer powers (e.g. GDP and GDP squared), which behave differently from linear cointegrating regressions. Here we provide the necessary tools for EKC analysis by deriving estimation and testing theory for cointegrating equations including stationary regressors, deterministic regressors, unit root nonstationary regressors and their integer powers. We consider fully modified OLS estimation, specification tests based on augmented and auxiliary regressions, as well as a sub-sample KPSS type cointegration test. We present simulation results illustrating the performance of the estimators and tests. In the empirical application for CO2 and SO2 emissions for 19 early industrialized countries over the period 1870-2000 we find evidence for an EKC in roughly half of the countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong, Seung Hyun & Wagner, Martin, 2008. "Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis and the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Economics Series 224, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:224

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Konstantin Gluschenko, 2004. "Analysing changes in market integration through a cross-sectional test for the law of one price," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 135-149.
    2. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-1125, December.
    3. Konstantin Gluschenko, 2003. "Market integration in Russia during the transformation years," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(3), pages 411-434, September.
    4. Berkowitz, Daniel & DeJong, David N. & Husted, Steven, 1998. "Quantifying Price Liberalization in Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 735-760, December.
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    Blog mentions

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    1. Tests for Non-Linear Cointegration
      by David Stern in Stochastic Trend on 2010-10-22 08:19:00


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    Cited by:

    1. Kander, Astrid & Stern, David I., 2014. "Economic growth and the transition from traditional to modern energy in Sweden," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 56-65.
    2. Ben Nasr, Adnen & Gupta, Rangan & Sato, João Ricardo, 2015. "Is there an Environmental Kuznets Curve for South Africa? A co-summability approach using a century of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 136-141.

    More about this item


    Integrated process; Nonlinear transformation; Fully modified estimation; Nonlinear cointegration analysis; Environmental Kuznets curve;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • Q20 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - General

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