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News Impact Curve for Stochastic Volatility Models

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  • Makoto Takahashi
  • Yasuhiro Omori
  • Toshiaki Watanabe

Abstract

This paper proposes a new method to compute the news impact curve for stochastic volatility (SV) models. The new method incorporates the joint movement of return and volatility, which has been ignored by the extant literature, by simply adding a couple of steps to the Bayesian MCMC estimation procedures for SV models. This simple procedure is versatile and applicable to various SV type models. Contrary to the monotonic news impact functions in the extant literature, the new method gives a U-shaped news impact curve comparable to GARCH models. It also captures the volatility asymmetry for the asymmetric SV models.

Suggested Citation

  • Makoto Takahashi & Yasuhiro Omori & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2012. "News Impact Curve for Stochastic Volatility Models," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-242, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd12-242
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kenichiro McAlinn & Asahi Ushio & Teruo Nakatsuma, 2020. "Volatility forecasts using stochastic volatility models with nonlinear leverage effects," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 143-154, March.
    2. Catania, Leopoldo & Proietti, Tommaso, 2020. "Forecasting volatility with time-varying leverage and volatility of volatility effects," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1301-1317.
    3. Kenichiro McAlinn & Asahi Ushio & Teruo Nakatsuma, 2016. "Volatility Forecasts Using Nonlinear Leverage Effects," Papers 1605.06482, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2017.
    4. Mao, Xiuping & Czellar, Veronika & Ruiz, Esther & Veiga, Helena, 2020. "Asymmetric stochastic volatility models: Properties and particle filter-based simulated maximum likelihood estimation," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 84-105.
    5. Asai, Manabu & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2022. "Realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility with asymmetry, long memory and higher-moment spillovers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 285-304.
    6. Treyer, Karin & Bauer, Christian & Simons, Andrew, 2014. "Human health impacts in the life cycle of future European electricity generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(S1), pages 31-44.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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