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Fertility and Marriage in Kazakhstan's Transition Period: Implications for Social Security Policy


  • Becker, Charles M.
  • Seitenova, Ai-Gul S.


Seven years ago, Kazakhstan embarked on a dramatic reform of its pension and social security system in order to move from an unsustainable public defined benefit ("solidarity") system to one of defined mandatory contributions (accumulative system). While much has been written on the financial implications for individual contributors, and on macro budgetary impacts, there has been no examination of how changing demographic structure is likely to affect the size of vulnerable pools. This paper explores the impact of these changes, and links demographic structure to economic performance. Focusing on changes in nuptiality (marriage) and fertility, we conclude that demographic structural shifts will increase overall system risk, but that current trends are favorable.

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  • Becker, Charles M. & Seitenova, Ai-Gul S., 2005. "Fertility and Marriage in Kazakhstan's Transition Period: Implications for Social Security Policy," Discussion Paper 261, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:piedp1:261

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    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • P35 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Public Finance
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies


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