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Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment on Speculation

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Abstract

We investigate experimentally how the share of experienced traders in doubleauction asset markets affects trading, in particular the occurrence of bubble-crash pricing patterns. In each session, six subjects trade in three successive market rounds and gain experience. In a fourth round, depending on the treatment, two or four experienced subjects are replaced by inexperienced subjects. The results are compared to earlier findings when all traders were either inexperienced or experienced. We explore what can be learned by analogy between these laboratory findings and the performance of naturally occurring markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Dufwenberg, Martin & Lindqvist, Tobias & Moore, Evan, 2003. "Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment on Speculation," Research Papers in Economics 2003:1, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2003_0001
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    1. Palomino, Frederic, 1996. " Noise Trading in Small Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1537-1550, September.
    2. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
    3. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-859, July.
    4. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "The Size and Incidence of the Losses from Noise Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 681-696, July.
    5. Vernon L. Smith, 1962. "An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 322-322.
    6. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    7. Peterson, Steven P., 1993. "Forecasting dynamics and convergence to market fundamentals : Evidence from experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 269-284, December.
    8. Vernon L. Smith, 1964. "Effect of Market Organization on Competitive Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(2), pages 181-201.
    9. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
    10. Robert Slonim, 2005. "Competing Against Experienced and Inexperienced Players," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 8(1), pages 55-75, April.
    11. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, "undated". "The Size and Incidence of Losses from Noise Trading," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _128, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    12. Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-541, October.
    13. Garber, Peter M, 1989. "Tulipmania," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 535-560, June.
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    1. Robert Slonim, 2005. "Competing Against Experienced and Inexperienced Players," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 8(1), pages 55-75, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset market; bubble; crash; experience; experiment; speculation;

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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