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Le système de retraite américain : impact de la crise et tendances de long terme

Author

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  • Vincent Touze

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

Abstract

Cet article présente une étude synthétique du système de retraite américain. Notre objectif est d'abord d'expliquer le fonctionnement des régimes par répartition et par capitalisation. Il s'agit également d'étudier comment la crise économique et financière a affecté ces régimes. On dresse aussi un bilan des prévisions officielles de long terme de l'évolution du régime par répartition en fonction de différents scénarios économiques et démographiques. Enfin, on s'intéresse à la nature du débat public et aux orientations possibles de l'action gouvernementale. Notre étude montre que la crise n'a pas mis en péril le financement du régime de retraite par répartition américain (OASDI) car ce dernier est toujours en excédent à court et moyen terme. Elle a seulement réduit le montant de cet excédent. A long terme, le fonds de réserve accumulé devrait être insuffisant pour couvrir les déficits primaires futurs. Une réforme d'envergure ne peut être exclue à partir de 2020. Avec la crise financière, les régimes par capitalisation ont souffert d'une forte dévalorisation de leurs actifs, ce qui pose un problème de survie pour certains fonds de pension. Une baisse du niveau des pensions ne peut être exclue sans apport d'un soutien financier public ou en l'absence d'une reprise suffisante des marchés financiers.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Touze, 2010. "Le système de retraite américain : impact de la crise et tendances de long terme," Working Papers hal-01069448, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01069448
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01069448
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melissa A. Boyle & Joanna N. Lahey, 2007. "Health Insurance and the Labor Supply Decisions of Older Workers: Evidence from the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2007-23, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2007.
    2. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1996. "Privatization of Social Security: How It Works and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 10, pages 1-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Elizabeth T. Powers & David Neumark, 2003. "The Interaction of Public Retirement Income Programs in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 261-265, May.
    4. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2008. "The Intergenerational Transfer of Public Pension Promises," NBER Working Papers 14343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent A. Smetters & Jan Walliser, 1998. "Opting Out of Social Security and Adverse Selection," NBER Working Papers 6430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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