Playing Catch Up: A Term-Level Investigation of the Racial Gap in STEM Retention

This paper examines differences in STEM retention between minority and non-minority students enrolled at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) from 1980 through 2006. Using detailed administrative records of undergraduate students, we document that minority students and non-minority students take divergent pathways through the STEM major. Specifically, minority students take fewer lower division STEM courses in their early career, which delays their enrollment in upper division STEM courses and leads to lower graduation probability in STEM within four years and higher dropout rates. We investigate the potential reasons (and/or predictors) for this apparent discrepancy. To do so, we first identify a student's major-specific Individual Performance Potential (IPP) from lower division course regressions. We find that once we control for the heterogeneity in the IPP's and a rich set of term level controls, the differences in intermediate outcomes (declared major, STEM course load) between minority and non-minority students largely disappear, but that some of the gap in outcomes persist, with the exception being in graduation from STEM within five years, for which minority students are more likely after controlling for these factors. Our findings suggest that minority STEM majors would benefit from additional support such as early career course advising.