IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-02863351.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How might climate change influence farmers' demand for index-based insurance?

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine Leblois

    (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement)

  • Tristan Le Cotty

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)

  • Elodie Maître d'Hôtel

    (UMR MOISA - Marchés, Organisations, Institutions et Stratégies d'Acteurs - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)

Abstract

The low observed uptake of non-subsidised index-based insurance policies in developing countries has been puzzling researchers for about a decade. This paper analyses the role of drought frequency in farmers' demand for index-based insurance in developing countries. While it is typically assumed that an increase in exposure to risk would result in higher demand for index insurance, this paper finds the opposite: an increase in drought frequency may result in lower demand for index insurance under fairly standard conditions. In an expected utility model, we show that the demand for insurance is an inverted U function of drought frequency. We further show that downside basis risk decreases insurance demand under frequent drought conditions. It implies that insurance against similar but more frequent events cannot meet large demand from farmers. To check the empirical relevance of these effects, we conduct an insurance field experiment in Burkina Faso with 205 farmers. We analyse insurance demand for different drought frequencies, different levels of basis risks and different loading factors through incentivised lottery choices. This analysis confirms that for higher drought frequencies, insurance demand is lower. Insurance demand also decreases with basis risk and the loading factor.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Leblois & Tristan Le Cotty & Elodie Maître d'Hôtel, 2020. "How might climate change influence farmers' demand for index-based insurance?," Post-Print halshs-02863351, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02863351
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106716
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02863351
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-02863351/document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106716?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lorenzo Casaburi & Rocco Macchiavello, 2019. "Demand and Supply of Infrequent Payments as a Commitment Device: Evidence from Kenya," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(2), pages 523-555, February.
    2. Dean Karlan & Robert Osei & Isaac Osei-Akoto & Christopher Udry, 2014. "Agricultural Decisions after Relaxing Credit and Risk Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 597-652.
    3. Carter, Michael R. & Cheng, Lan & Sarris, Alexandros, 2016. "Where and how index insurance can boost the adoption of improved agricultural technologies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 59-71.
    4. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    5. Kunreuther, Howard & Slovic, Paul, 1978. "Economics, Psychology, and Protective Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 64-69, May.
    6. Elena Serfilippi & Michael Carter & Catherine Guirkinger, 2018. "Insurance Contracts when Individuals “Greatly Value” Certainty: Results from a Field Experiment in Burkina Faso," NBER Working Papers 25026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gin, Xavier & Yang, Dean, 2009. "Insurance, credit, and technology adoption: Field experimental evidencefrom Malawi," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-11, May.
    8. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Mark R. Rosenzweig, 2013. "Informal Risk Sharing, Index Insurance, and Risk Taking in Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 375-380, May.
    9. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    10. Jing Cai & Alain De Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2015. "Social Networks and the Decision to Insure," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 81-108, April.
    11. Dercon, Stefan & Hill, Ruth Vargas & Clarke, Daniel & Outes-Leon, Ingo & Seyoum Taffesse, Alemayehu, 2014. "Offering rainfall insurance to informal insurance groups: Evidence from a field experiment in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 132-143.
    12. Olivier Mahul, 2001. "Optimal Insurance Against Climatic Experience," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 593-604.
    13. Xavier Giné & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2008. "Patterns of Rainfall Insurance Participation in Rural India," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(3), pages 539-566, October.
    14. Turvey, Calum G. & Nayak, Govindaray, 2003. "The Semivariance-Minimizing Hedge Ratio," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(1), pages 1-16, April.
    15. Howard Kunreuther & Mark Pauly, 2004. "Neglecting Disaster: Why Don't People Insure Against Large Losses?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 5-21, January.
    16. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Paul Raschky & Reimund Schwarze & Manijeh Schwindt & Ferdinand Zahn, 2013. "Uncertainty of Governmental Relief and the Crowding out of Flood Insurance," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 179-200, February.
    18. Carolyn Kousky & Roger Cooke, 2012. "Explaining the Failure to Insure Catastrophic Risks," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 37(2), pages 206-227, April.
    19. Hongbin Cai & Yuyu Chen & Hanming Fang & Li-An Zhou, 2009. "Microinsurance, Trust and Economic Development: Evidence from a Randomized Natural Field Experiment," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-034, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    20. Michael T. Norton, 2013. "Quantifying spatial basis risk for weather index insurance," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 20-34, February.
    21. Johannes G. Jaspersen, 2016. "Hypothetical Surveys And Experimental Studies Of Insurance Demand: A Review," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(1), pages 217-255, January.
    22. Michael Norton & Daniel Osgood & Malgosia Madajewicz & Eric Holthaus & Nicole Peterson & Rahel Diro & Conner Mullally & Tse-Ling Teh & Mengesha Gebremichael, 2014. "Evidence of Demand for Index Insurance: Experimental Games and Commercial Transactions in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(5), pages 630-648, May.
    23. Shawn Cole & Xavier Gine & Jeremy Tobacman & Petia Topalova & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2013. "Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 104-135, January.
    24. Antoine Leblois & Philippe Quirion & Benjamin Sultan, 2013. "Price vs. weather shock hedging for cash crops: ex ante evaluation for cotton producers in Cameroon," Working Papers hal-00796528, HAL.
    25. Daniel J. Clarke, 2016. "A Theory of Rational Demand for Index Insurance," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 283-306, February.
    26. Kunreuther, Howard & Novemsky, Nathan & Kahneman, Daniel, 2001. "Making Low Probabilities Useful," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 103-120, September.
    27. McClelland, Gary H & Schulze, William D & Coursey, Don L, 1993. "Insurance for Low-Probability Hazards: A Bimodal Response to Unlikely Events," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 95-116, August.
    28. Neil A. Doherty & Harris Schlesinger, 1990. "Rational Insurance Purchasing: Consideration of Contract Nonperformance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 243-253.
    29. Million Tadesse & Bekele Shiferaw & Olaf Erenstein, 2015. "Weather index insurance for managing drought risk in smallholder agriculture: lessons and policy implications for sub-Saharan Africa," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.
    30. Robert G. Chambers, 1989. "Insurability and Moral Hazard in Agricultural Insurance Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(3), pages 604-616.
    31. Olivier Mahul, 2001. "Optimal insurance against climatic experience," Post-Print hal-01952102, HAL.
    32. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    33. Platteau, Jean-Philippe & De Bock, Ombeline & Gelade, Wouter, 2017. "The Demand for Microinsurance: A Literature Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 139-156.
    34. Lorenzo Casaburi & Jack Willis, 2018. "Time versus State in Insurance: Experimental Evidence from Contract Farming in Kenya," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3778-3813, December.
    35. Stefan Dercon & Pramila Krishnan, 2000. "Vulnerability, seasonality and poverty in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 25-53.
    36. Craig McIntosh & Alexander Sarris & Fotis Papadopoulos, 2013. "Productivity, credit, risk, and the demand for weather index insurance in smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(4-5), pages 399-417, July.
    37. Susan Laury & Melayne McInnes & J. Swarthout, 2009. "Insurance decisions for low-probability losses," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 17-44, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Fangping & Xiang, Zhiyuan & Wang, Xuanhe & Yang, Mo & Kuang, Haibo, 2023. "An innovative tool for cost control under fragmented scenarios: The container freight index microinsurance," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Feng Kong, 2021. "How to Understand the Role of Insurance Mechanism in a Global Pandemic?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-11, June.
    3. Feng Kong & Shao Sun, 2021. "Better Understanding Insurance Mechanism in Dealing with Climate Change Risk, with Special Reference to China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-14, March.
    4. Will, Meike & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Lenel, Friederike & Frank, Karin & Müller, Birgit, 2023. "Determinants of Household Vulnerability in Networks with Formal Insurance and Informal Risk-Sharing," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Glenn W. Harrison & Jia Min Ng, 2019. "Behavioral insurance and economic theory: A literature review," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 133-182, July.
    2. Platteau, Jean-Philippe & De Bock, Ombeline & Gelade, Wouter, 2017. "The Demand for Microinsurance: A Literature Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 139-156.
    3. King, Michael & Singh, Anuj Pratap, 2020. "Understanding farmers’ valuation of agricultural insurance: Evidence from Vietnam," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Sarah Janzen & Nicholas Magnan & Conner Mullally & Soye Shin & I. Bailey Palmer & Judith Oduol & Karl Hughes, 2021. "Can Experiential Games and Improved Risk Coverage Raise Demand for Index Insurance? Evidence from Kenya," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 338-361, January.
    5. Anita Mukherjee & Shawn Cole & Jeremy Tobacman, 2021. "Targeting weather insurance markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(3), pages 757-784, September.
    6. Ward, Patrick S. & Kumar, Neha & De Nicola, Francesca & Hill, Ruth & Makhija, Simrin & Spielman, David J. & Magnan, Nicholas, 2017. "Insuring Against Drought: Evidence on Agricultural Intensification and Demand for Index Insurance from a Randomized Evaluation in Rural Bangladesh," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258090, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Kumar, Neha & Magnan, Nicholas & Makhija, Simrin & de Nicola, Francesca & Spielman, David J. & Ward, Patrick S., 2019. "Ex ante and ex post effects of hybrid index insurance in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-17.
    8. Wong, Ho Lun & Wei, Xiangdong & Kahsay, Haftom Bayray & Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Gardebroek, Cornelis & Osgood, Daniel E. & Diro, Rahel, 2020. "Effects of input vouchers and rainfall insurance on agricultural production and household welfare: Experimental evidence from northern Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Shukri Ahmed & Craig McIntosh & Alexandros Sarris, 2020. "The Impact of Commercial Rainfall Index Insurance: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1154-1176, August.
    10. Aurélien Baillon & Owen O'Donnell & Stella Quimbo & Kim van Wilgenburg, 2022. "Do time preferences explain low health insurance take‐up?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(4), pages 951-983, December.
    11. Immanuel Lampe & Daniel Würtenberger, 2019. "Loss Aversion And The Demand For Index Insurance," Working Papers on Finance 1907, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    12. Ricome, Aymeric & Affholder, François & Gérard, Françoise & Muller, Bertrand & Poeydebat, Charlotte & Quirion, Philippe & Sall, Moussa, 2017. "Are subsidies to weather-index insurance the best use of public funds? A bio-economic farm model applied to the Senegalese groundnut basin," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 149-176.
    13. Michael R. CARTER & Alain de JANVRY & Elisabeth SADOULET & Alexandros SARRIS, 2014. "Index-based weather insurance for developing countries: A review of evidence and a set of propositions for up-scaling," Working Papers P111, FERDI.
    14. Shin, Soye & Magnan, Nicholas & Mullally, Conner & Janzen, Sarah, 2022. "Demand for Weather Index Insurance among Smallholder Farmers under Prospect Theory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 82-104.
    15. Jensen, Nathaniel D. & Mude, Andrew G. & Barrett, Christopher B., 2018. "How basis risk and spatiotemporal adverse selection influence demand for index insurance: Evidence from northern Kenya," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 172-198.
    16. Awel Y. & Azomahou T.T., 2015. "Risk preference or financial literacy? Behavioural experiment on index insurance demand," MERIT Working Papers 2015-005, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    17. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Kumar, Neha & Magnan, Nicholas & Makhija, Simrin & de Nicola, Francesca & Spielman, David J. & Ward, Patrick S., 2017. "Insuring against droughts: Evidence on agricultural intensification and index insurance demand from a randomized evaluation in rural Bangladesh," IFPRI discussion papers 1630, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Million Tadesse & Bekele Shiferaw & Olaf Erenstein, 2015. "Weather index insurance for managing drought risk in smallholder agriculture: lessons and policy implications for sub-Saharan Africa," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.
    19. Belissa, Temesgen & Bulte, Erwin & Cecchi, Francesco & Gangopadhyay, Shubhashis & Lensink, Robert, 2019. "Liquidity constraints, informal institutions, and the adoption of weather insurance: A randomized controlled Trial in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 269-278.
    20. Lampe, Immanuel & Würtenberger, Daniel, 2020. "Loss aversion and the demand for index insurance," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 678-693.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    basis risk; index-based insurance; extreme events; frequency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02863351. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.