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Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs

Author

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  • Clotilde Napp

    () (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique)

  • Elyès Jouini

    () (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper is a generalization of [Calvet, L., Grandmont, J.-M., Lemaire, I., 2002. Aggregation of heterogenous beliefs and asset pricing in complete financial markets. Working paper] to a dynamic setting. We propose a method to aggregate heterogeneous individual probability beliefs, in dynamic and complete asset markets, into a single consensus probability belief. This consensus probability belief, if commonly shared by all investors, generates the same equilibrium prices as well as the same individual marginal valuation as in the original heterogeneous probability beliefs setting. As in [Calvet, L., Grandmont, J.-M., Lemaire, I., 2002. Aggregation of heterogenous beliefs and asset pricing in complete financial markets. Working paper], the construction stands on a fictitious adjustment of the market portfolio. The adjustment process reflects the aggregation bias due to the diversity of beliefs. In this setting, the construction of a representative agent is shown to be also valid.

Suggested Citation

  • Clotilde Napp & Elyès Jouini, 2006. "Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs," Post-Print halshs-00151562, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00151562
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00151562
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Basak, Suleyman & Cuoco, Domenico, 1998. "An Equilibrium Model with Restricted Stock Market Participation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 309-341.
    2. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2007. "Consensus Consumer and Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 1149-1174.
    3. Laurent Calvet & Jean-Michel Grandmont & Isabelle Lemaire, 2001. "Aggregation of Heterogenous Beliefs and Asset Pricing in Complete Financial Markets," Working Papers 2001-01, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    4. Rubinstein, Mark, 1976. "The Strong Case for the Generalized Logarithmic Utility Model as the Premier Model of Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 551-571, May.
    5. Rubinstein, Mark, 1974. "An aggregation theorem for securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 225-244, September.
    6. Zapatero, Fernando, 1998. "Effects of financial innovations on market volatility when beliefs are heterogeneous," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 597-626, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:mateco:v:70:y:2017:i:c:p:105-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Prediction Market Accuracy," TSE Working Papers 13-394, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. repec:eee:jfinec:v:127:y:2018:i:3:p:459-484 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Christian Gollier, 2007. "Whom should we believe? Aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 107-127, October.
    5. Chakrabarty, Anindya & De, Anupam & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Dubey, Rameshwar, 2015. "Investment horizon heterogeneity and wavelet: Overview and further research directions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 45-61.
    6. Costas Xiouros, 2006. "Asset price volatilities and trading volumes in heterogeneous agent economies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 466, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Anindya Chakrabarty & Anupam De & Gautam Bandyopadhyay, 2016. "Horizon heterogeneity, institutional constraint and managerial myopia: a multi-frequency perspective on ELSS," International Journal of Business Excellence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 18-47.
    8. Amos Storkey, 2011. "Machine Learning Markets," Papers 1106.4509, arXiv.org.
    9. Min Shen & Gabriel Turinici, 2012. "Liquidity generated by heterogeneous beliefs and costly estimations," Post-Print hal-00638966, HAL.

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