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Sex ratio and fertility preferences in India: A longitudinal analysis

Author

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  • Matthieu Clément

    (BSE - Bordeaux sciences économiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Pierre Levasseur

    (SADAPT - Sciences pour l'Action et le Développement : Activités, Produits, Territoires - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Suneha Seetahul

    (The University of Sydney)

Abstract

Birth control policies and entrenched patriarchal norms have contributed to a highly imbalanced male/female ratio in India. While the impact of son preference on the sex ratio is largely studied, the consequences of a maleskewed sex ratio on women's fertility preferences remain underexplored. Merging different longitudinal datasets (Indian Census and IHDS panel household survey), this article provides an original empirical analysis of the effect of district-level sex ratios on women's fertility preferences and the nested pathways of this relationship. Individual and time fixed-effects regressions show that district-level surplus of men negatively affects women's desired number of sons. The robustness of these findings is confirmed after conducting multiple checks, including controlling for endogeneity by leveraging temperature data from the India meteorological department (1952-2011). The investigation of potential pathways shows that a higher district male/female ratio may make gender norms and the marriage market more favorable to women (via an increase in decision-making power and age of marriage, and a decrease in the dowry price and domestic violence acceptance). We conclude that this self-corrective process which shapes the relationship between sex ratio and son preference in contexts of entrenched patriarchal norms, hinders gender equality.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Clément & Pierre Levasseur & Suneha Seetahul, 2025. "Sex ratio and fertility preferences in India: A longitudinal analysis," Post-Print hal-05049267, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05049267
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107046
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05049267v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elyse A. Jennings & Rachael S. Pierotti, 2016. "The influence of wives’ and husbands’ fertility preferences on progression to a third birth in Nepal, 1997--2009," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(1), pages 115-133, March.
    2. Valentina Alvarez-Saavedra & Pierre Levasseur & Suneha Seetahul, 2023. "The Role of Gender Inequality in the Obesity Epidemic: A Case Study from India," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(7), pages 980-996, July.
    3. Roland Pongou, 2013. "Why Is Infant Mortality Higher in Boys Than in Girls? A New Hypothesis Based on Preconception Environment and Evidence From a Large Sample of Twins," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 421-444, April.
    4. Roland Pongou, 2013. "Erratum to: Why Is Infant Mortality Higher in Boys Than in Girls? A New Hypothesis Based on Preconception Environment and Evidence From a Large Sample of Twins," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 445-446, April.
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