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Assessing the Impact of Typhoons on Rice Production in the Philippines


  • Elodie Blanc

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Eric Strobl

    (X - École polytechnique, IPAG Business School, GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)


This study quantifies the impact of typhoons on rice production in the Philippines. To this end, satellite-derived reflectance data are used to detect the location of rice fields at 500-m resolution. Utilizing typhoon-track data within a wind field model and satellite-derived precipitation measures, fragility curves are then employed to proxy the damage of storms on rice production within each rice field. The results from a panel spatial regression model show that typhoons substantially reduced local provincial production in the quarter of the strike, having caused losses of up to 12.5 million tons since 2001. Using extreme value theory to predict future losses, the results suggest that a typhoon like the recent Haiyan, which is estimated to have caused losses of around 260 000 tons, has a return period of 13 years. This methodology can provide a relatively timely tool for rice damage assessments after tropical cyclones in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Elodie Blanc & Eric Strobl, 2016. "Assessing the Impact of Typhoons on Rice Production in the Philippines," Post-Print hal-01446210, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01446210
    DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0214.1

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    Cited by:

    1. Hoang, Trung Xuan & Nga, Van Thi Le, 2021. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Womenʼs Empowerment in Rural Vietnam," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 62(2), pages 101-123, December.
    2. Beatrice Monteleone & Iolanda Borzí & Brunella Bonaccorso & Mario Martina, 2023. "Quantifying crop vulnerability to weather-related extreme events and climate change through vulnerability curves," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 2761-2796, April.
    3. Klomp, Jeroen & Hoogezand, Barry, 2018. "Natural disasters and agricultural protection: A panel data analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 404-417.
    4. Su-Hoon Choi & So-Yeon Park & Ung Yang & Beomseon Lee & Min-Soo Kim & Sang-Hyun Lee, 2023. "Analysis of the Fruit Drop Rate Caused by Typhoons Using Meteorological Data," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, September.
    5. Elodie Blanc & Ilan Noy, 2022. "Impacts of Droughts and Floods on Agricultural Productivity in New Zealand as Measured from Space," CESifo Working Paper Series 9634, CESifo.
    6. Brian Walsh & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2020. "Measuring Natural Risks in the Philippines: Socioeconomic Resilience and Wellbeing Losses," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 249-293, July.
    7. Isabelle RABAUD & Daniel MIRZA & Hajare EL HADRI, 2018. "Why Natural Disasters Might Not Lead to a Fall in Exports in Developing Countries?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2570, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    8. Tam Bang Vu & Eric Iksoon Im & Karla Hayashi & Ryan Torio, 2017. "Cyclones, Deforestation, and Production of Food Crops in Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 245-262, October.
    9. Hemalatha Palanivel & Shipra Shah, 2021. "Unlocking the inherent potential of plant genetic resources: food security and climate adaptation strategy in Fiji and the Pacific," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14264-14323, October.
    10. Noy, Ilan & Blanc, Elodie & Pundit, Madhavi & Uher, Tomas, 2023. "Nowcasting from Space: Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Fiji’s Agriculture," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 676, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Sven Kunze, 2021. "Unraveling the Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Economic Sectors Worldwide: Direct and Indirect Impacts," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(4), pages 545-569, April.
    12. Tran, Thi Xuyen, 2021. "Typhoon and Agricultural Production Portfolio -Empirical Evidence for a Developing Economy," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242411, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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