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Deregulation of the ASEAN air Transport Market: Measure of Impacts of Airport Activities on Local Economies

Author

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  • Isabelle Laplace

    (ENAC - Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile)

  • Chantal Roucolle

    (LEEA - ENAC - Laboratoire d'Economie et d'Econométrie de l'Aérien - ENAC - Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile)

Abstract

ASEAN Member States are currently in a step through liberalization of air traffic market in their region. The target is the 5th freedom right for South-East Asia in 2020. Two opposite effects might be observed following the deregulation: one negative on flag carrier due to increase in competition, one positive on national and regional economies. One main issue concerns the impact of expected development of airport activity on national and regional economies. We propose an estimation of these impact, using a two stage econometric model applied to four ASEAN countries. We show that GDP is the most sensible to air traffic growth in region where only international airports are located, that is for region that exhibit the highest level of development. We show that up to the 5th freedom right, given the expectation in tourism development, national GDP is expected to increase by 9% (Myanmar) to 51% (The Philippines) depending on the country. The magnitude of the impact depends on the tourism development expectation as well as on the tourism contribution to GDP. The analysis show then that economic benefit of air transport liberalization are non-negligible for the ASEAN countries. Given the magnitude of the estimated effect, the benefits would certainly overlap the negative effect of competition on the flag carriers.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabelle Laplace & Chantal Roucolle, 2016. "Deregulation of the ASEAN air Transport Market: Measure of Impacts of Airport Activities on Local Economies," Post-Print hal-01338251, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01338251
    DOI: 10.1016/j.trpro.2016.05.492
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://enac.hal.science/hal-01338251
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    1. Marazzo, Marcial & Scherre, Rafael & Fernandes, Elton, 2010. "Air transport demand and economic growth in Brazil: A time series analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 261-269, March.
    2. Hu, Yi & Xiao, Jin & Deng, Ying & Xiao, Yi & Wang, Shouyang, 2015. "Domestic air passenger traffic and economic growth in China: Evidence from heterogeneous panel models," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 95-100.
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    1. Bilotkach, Volodymyr & Caro-Burnett, Johann & Khan, Ghulam Dastgir & Sembiring, Benny Lala & Yoshida, Yuichiro, 2021. "Measuring the impact of ASEAN Open Skies on international air traffic movements from and to Southeast Asian Cities," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 368-378.

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