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Election Surprises and Exchange rate Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Garfinkel, M.R.
  • Glazer, A.
  • Lee, J.

Abstract

Does the new information revealed by election outcomes help to explain unexpected fluctuations in foreign exchange rates? To answer this question, we examine the behavior of errors from forecasting future exchange rate surrounding elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Garfinkel, M.R. & Glazer, A. & Lee, J., 1997. "Election Surprises and Exchange rate Uncertainty," Papers 97-98-15, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:calirv:97-98-15
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anya Khanthavit, 2020. "An Event Study Analysis of Thailand¡¯s 2019 General Election: A Long Window of Multiple Sub-events," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(4), pages 502-514, July.
    2. Meon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2001. "A Model of Exchange Rate Crises with Partisan Governments," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 517-535, October.
    3. Shi-jie Jiang & Matthew Chang & I-chan Chiang, 2012. "Price discovery in stock index: an ARDL-ECM approach in Taiwan case," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1227-1238, June.
    4. Haberer, Markus, 2004. "Might a Securities Transactions Tax Mitigate Excess Volatility? Some Evidence From the Literature," CoFE Discussion Papers 04/06, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    5. Cermeño, Rodolfo & Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin, 2010. "Elections, exchange rates and reform in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 166-174, July.
    6. Berlemann, Michael & Markwardt, Gunther, 2006. "Variable rational partisan cycles and electoral uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 874-886, December.
    7. López Noria Gabriela & Bush Georgia, 2019. "Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility: the Case of Mexico," Working Papers 2019-12, Banco de México.
    8. Michael Berlemann & Gunther Markwardt, 2007. "Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1919-1945, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ELECTIONS ; FINANCIAL MARKET;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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