The effects of a secondary school scholarship on youth outcomes: Evidence from a randomized trial

Although primary school enrollment has steadily increased in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years, enrollment in secondary school remains generally low in comparison with other regions (Evans and Mendez Acosta 2021). In Ethiopia, enrollment in lower secondary school roughly doubled over the past decade to reach an estimated 46 percent in 2021–2022, but substantial heterogeneity exists across rural and urban areas and across poorer and richer households (Tiruneh and Molla 2024). In rural areas, long distances from home to school often pose a substantial barrier to secondary school enrollment, especially for poor households. In addition to the real or perceived risks of insecurity linked to attendance – encountering insecure conditions along the route, or risks for youth who reside away from home to attend – these lengthy distances imply substantial out-of-pocket costs for transportation or accommodation, and households may struggle to manage these costs (Leight et al. 2022). Limited post-primary educational attainment can have substantial adverse effects for youth, limiting their opportunities for future employment and income generation and increasing the likelihood of early marriage for girls (Giacobino et al. 2024). This project note reports the main findings from a randomized trial conducted in rural Ethiopia, which assessed the effects of a scholarship for lower secondary school students (ninth and tenth grade) targeting extremely poor youth. We find that the provision of a scholarship led to a 12-percentage-point increase in the probability of secondary school enrollment two years later compared to youth who did not receive a scholarship, an effect that was greatest among students who received early notification about the scholarship (one year before eligibility). There was no change in attendance or academic performance, suggesting that students in the treatment arm performed as well as those in the control arm. Some evidence also indicated a small decline in the likelihood of child marriage and an enhancement in youth well-being. Overall, the findings suggest that the scholarship may be a valuable intervention to increase secondary school attainment, particularly if announced earlier; however, a third of youth who passed the primary school exam and were offered a scholarship still did not enroll. This suggests there are other important barriers to secondary school progression in this sample.