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Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s economy: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach

Author

Listed:
  • Diao, Xinshen
  • Aung, Nilar
  • Lwin, Wuit Yi
  • Zone, Phoo Pye
  • Nyunt, Khin Maung
  • Thurlow, James

Abstract

The measures taken by the Government of Myanmar to contain the transmission of COVID-19 are a necessary and appropriate response. In-depth analysis of measures of this magnitude on firms, households, government, and the economy as a whole is key to the design of policy interventions that can mitigate the economic losses and support a sustained and robust recovery. The economic losses to Myanmar’s economy in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic will be huge – a drop in production on the order of between 6.4 and 9.0 trillion Kyat – and likely will push the economy into a recession or lead to stagnant growth, at best, for the year. Although lockdown policies provide exemptions for most agricultural activities, linkages to other sectors indirectly affect the agri-food sector significantly. The agricultural sector is expected to contract by between 1.1 and 2.4 percent in 2020, and recovery will be slow. Closure of factories will have a large negative economic impact due to the strong linkage effects between manufacturing and upstream primary agriculture and downstream marketing services. Reopening the manufacturing sector is crucial for economic recovery in Myanmar.

Suggested Citation

  • Diao, Xinshen & Aung, Nilar & Lwin, Wuit Yi & Zone, Phoo Pye & Nyunt, Khin Maung & Thurlow, James, 2020. "Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s economy: A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach," Myanmar SSP policy notes 5, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:myanpn:5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ines A. Ferreira & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2021. "Poverty and vulnerability transitions in Myanmar: An analysis using synthetic panels," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1919-1944, November.
    2. Johan Swinnen & John McDermott, 2020. "Covid‐19 and Global Food Security," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 19(3), pages 26-33, December.
    3. Henning Tarp Jensen & Marcus Keogh-Brown & Finn Tarp, 2021. "Climate change and agricultural productivity in Myanmar: Application of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-181, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Catherine Ragasa & Isabel Lambrecht & Kristi Mahrt & Zin Wai Aung & Michael Wang, 2021. "Immediate impacts of COVID‐19 on female and male farmers in central Myanmar: Phone‐based household survey evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(3), pages 505-523, May.
    5. Edward Oteng Asante & Genevieve Kuntu Blankson & Gabriela Sabau, 2021. "Building Back Sustainably: COVID-19 Impact and Adaptation in Newfoundland and Labrador Fisheries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-14, February.
    6. Boughton, Duncan & Goeb, Joseph & Lambrecht, Isabel & Headey, Derek & Takeshima, Hiroyuki & Mahrt, Kristi & Masias, Ian & Goudet, Sophie & Ragasa, Catherine & Maredia, Mywish K. & Minten, Bart & Diao,, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on agricultural production and food systems in late transforming Southeast Asia: The case of Myanmar," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    7. Henning Tarp Jensen & Marcus Keogh-Brown & Finn Tarp, 2021. "Labour market projections and time allocation in Myanmar: Application of a new computable general equilibrium (CGE) model," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-180, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Value chains and nutrition & Sustainable aquaculture & Hoong, Y. & Tran, N. & Akester, M.J. & Khin, M.S. & Belton, B. & Shamwela, S. & Naw, L. & Noot, S. & Myint, K.T. & Oo, K.M. & Wai, C. & Phyo, E.E, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 and options to build resilience and recovery in fish value chains in Myanmar," Monographs, The WorldFish Center, number 41003, April.
    9. Fang, Peixun & Belton, Ben & Zhang, Xiaobo & Ei Win, Hnin, 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar's chicken and egg sector, with implications for the sustainable development goals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).

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