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Hydro-economic modeling of climate change impacts in Ethiopia

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  • You, Gene Jiing-Yun
  • Ringler, Claudia

Abstract

Ethiopia is susceptible to frequent climate extremes such as disastrous droughts and floods. These disastrous climatic events, which have caused significant adverse effects on the country’s economy and society, are expected to become more pronounced in the future under climate change. To identify the potential threat of climate change to the Ethiopian economy, this study analyzes three major factors that are changing under global warming: water availability under higher temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, the impact of changing precipitation patterns on flooding, and the potential impact on crop production of the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect. These issues are analyzed based on an existing multi-market-sector model for the Ethiopian economy, with a focus on agriculture. Our analysis finds that the major impact of climate change on Ethiopia’s economy will result from more frequent occurrence of extreme hydrologic events, which cause losses in both the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors. To adapt to these long-term changes, Ethiopia should invest in enhanced water control to expand irrigation and improve flood protection.

Suggested Citation

  • You, Gene Jiing-Yun & Ringler, Claudia, 2010. "Hydro-economic modeling of climate change impacts in Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 960, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:960
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Diao, Xinshen & Pratt, Alejandro Nin, 2007. "Growth options and poverty reduction in Ethiopia - An economy-wide model analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 205-228, April.
    2. Diao, Xinshen & Pratt, Alejandro Nin & Ghautam, Madhur & Keough, James & Chamberlin, Jordan & You, Liangszi & Puetz, Detlev & Resnick, Danielle & Yu, Bingxin, 2005. "Growth options and poverty reduction in Ethiopia: a spatial, economy-wide model analysis for 2004-2015," DSGD discussion papers 20, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Paul J. Block & Kenneth Strzepek & Mark W. Rosegrant & Xinshen Diao, 2008. "Impacts of considering climate variability on investment decisions in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(2), pages 171-181, September.
    4. World Bank, 2008. "Ethiopia - A Country Study on the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8030, The World Bank.
    5. Nikos Alexandratos, 2005. "Countries with Rapid Population Growth and Resource Constraints: Issues of Food, Agriculture, and Development," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(2), pages 237-258, June.
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    2. Demissie, Ashenafi A. & Solomon, A.A., 2016. "Power system sensitivity to extreme hydrological conditions as studied using an integrated reservoir and power system dispatch model, the case of Ethiopia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 442-463.
    3. Borgomeo, Edoardo & Vadheim, Bryan & Woldeyes, Firew B. & Alamirew, Tena & Tamru, Seneshaw & Charles, Katrina J. & Kebede, Seifu & Walker, Oliver, 2018. "The Distributional and Multi-Sectoral Impacts of Rainfall Shocks: Evidence From Computable General Equilibrium Modelling for the Awash Basin, Ethiopia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 621-632.

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    Keywords

    carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect; Climate change; Droughts; floods; Global warming; hydro-economic modeling; hydrologic events;
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