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Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico

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  • John Clark
  • Elizabeth Berko

Abstract

We investigate the economically and statistically significant positive correlation between monthly foreign purchases of Mexican stocks and Mexican stock returns. We find that 1 percent of market capitalization surprise foreign inflow is associated with a 13 percent increase in Mexican stock prices. We explore whether this correlation might be explained by permanent reductions in conditional expected returns resulting from expansion of the investor base along the lines modeled by Merton (1987) or correlations with other factors causing returns, price pressures, or positive feedback strategies by foreign investors, and conclude that the available evidence is consistent with the base-broadening hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • John Clark & Elizabeth Berko, 1996. "Foreign investment fluctuations and emerging market stock returns: the case of Mexico," Research Paper 9635, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9635
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2002. "Did the Asian financial crisis scare foreign investors out of Japan?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 411-442, September.
    2. Choe, Hyuk & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 1999. "Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 227-264, October.
    3. Ministry of Finance, 2006. "Report of the Expert Group on Encouraging FII Flows and Checking the Vulnerability of Capital Markets to Speculative Flows," Working Papers id:351, eSocialSciences.
    4. Lowry, Michelle, 2003. "Why does IPO volume fluctuate so much?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 3-40, January.
    5. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2009. "Do foreign purchases of U.S. stocks help the U.S. stock market?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 969-986, December.
    6. Baer, Werner & Hargis, Kent, 1997. "Forms of external capital and economic development in Latin America: 1820-1997," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1805-1820, November.
    7. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.

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    Keywords

    Capital movements ; Investments; Foreign ; Mexico;

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