Rounding and the impact of news: a simple test of market rationality
Certain prominent scheduled macroeconomic news releases contain a rounded number on the first page of the release that is widely cited by newswires and the press and a more precise number in the text of the release. The whole release comes out at once. We propose a simple test of whether markets are paying attention to the rounded or unrounded numbers by studying the high-frequency market reaction to such news announcements. In the case of inflation releases, we find evidence that markets systematically ignore some of the information in the unrounded number. This is most pronounced for core CPI, a prominent release for which the rounding in the headline number is large relative to the information content of the release.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/fedsorder.html|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Owen A. Lamont & Richard H. Thaler, 2003.
"Can the Market Add and Subtract? Mispricing in Tech Stock Carve-outs,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 227-268, April.
- Owen A. Lamont & Richard H. Thaler, 2001. "Can the Market Add and Subtract? Mispricing in Tech Stock Carve-Outs," NBER Working Papers 8302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Owen A. Lamont & Richard H. Thaler, . "Can the Market Add and Subtract? Mispricing in Tech Stock Carve-outs," CRSP working papers 528, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Christopher A. Sims, 2006. "Rational Inattention: Beyond the Linear-Quadratic Case," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 158-163, May.
- Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1997.
"Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market,"
New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires
98-005, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1996. "Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence From the U.S. Treasury Market," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-13, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2007-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.