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The Short Lags of Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Guilherme Alves da Silva
  • Gergely Buda
  • Vasco M. Carvalho
  • Giancarlo Corsetti

  • João B. Duarte
  • Stephen Hansen

  • Afonso S. Moura
  • Alberto Ortiz
  • Tomasa Rodrigo
  • José V. Rodriguez Mora

Abstract

We examine the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the macroeconomy at high frequency. To do so, we construct daily consumption and investment aggregates from bank transaction records and leverage administrative data on daily corporate sales and employment for Spain. We show that variables typically viewed as slow-moving, such as consumption and corporate sales, respond significantly within weeks. By contrast, aggregate employment and (monthly) consumer prices adjust only gradually. Disaggregating responses by sector, consumption category and supply-chain distance from final demand, we find that fast demand adjustment is led by downstream sectors closely tied to consumption—especially luxury goods and durables—while upstream sectors respond more slowly but more persistently, ultimately accounting for the contraction in aggregate activity. Excess inventories accumulate first in retail and wholesale trade and only later among upstream manufacturers, reconciling the rapid adjustment of sales with the slower response of production and employment. Finally, we show that time aggregation to the quarterly frequency obscures the timing of monetary policy transmission by shifting estimated responses to longer horizons, whereas weekly and monthly aggregation preserve the patterns observed at daily frequency.

Suggested Citation

  • Guilherme Alves da Silva & Gergely Buda & Vasco M. Carvalho & Giancarlo Corsetti & João B. Duarte & Stephen Hansen & Afonso S. Moura & Alberto Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & José V. Rodriguez Mora, 2026. "The Short Lags of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2631, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:103794
    DOI: 10.24149/wp2631
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Buda, G & Carvalho, V. M. & Corsetti, G & Duarte, J. B. & Hansen, S. & Moura, A. S. & Ortiz, A. & Rodrigo, T. & Rodríguez Mora, J. V. & Alves da Silva, G., 2026. "The Short Lags of Monetary Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2509, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Afonso S. Moura & Gergely Buda & Vasco M. Carvalho & Giancarlo Corsetti & João B. Duarte & Stephen Hansen & Álvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Guilherme Alves da Silva, 2025. "The Short Lags of Monetary Policy," Working Papers w202501, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Buda, Gergely & Carvalho, Vasco & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Duarte, Joao B. & Hansen, Stephen & Moura, Afonso S. & Ortiz, Alvaro & Rodrigo, Tomasa & Rodríguez Mora, José V & Silva, Guilherme A., 2023. "The Short Lags of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 18022, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Gebauer, Stefan & Nakov, Anton & Nuño, Galo & Osbat, Chiara & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Paulus, Alari & Quintana, Javier & Valderrama, Maria Teresa & Palazzolo, Alberto, 2026. "The propagation of shocks across the production network and implications for monetary policy," Occasional Paper Series 392, European Central Bank.
    3. Karina Zhemelko & Kristina Kocisova, 2026. "How Effective is Monetary Policy Transmission? A Meta-analysis on Interest Rate Pass-Through and Speed of Adjustment," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 68(1), pages 1-59, March.
    4. Martin Brown & Daniel Hoechle & Lizet Alejandra Perez Cortes & Markus Schmid, 2025. "Monetary Policy Wealth Effects: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Shock," Working Papers 25.06, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    5. Felber, Laura, 2026. "Exchange rates and cross-border consumer spending: Evidence from retail payments data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    6. Acosta, Miguel & Ajello, Andrea & Bauer, Michael D. & Loria, Francesca & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2025. "Financial market effects of FOMC communication: Evidence from a new event-study database," IMFS Working Paper Series 227, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    7. Joel P. Flynn & George Nikolakoudis & Karthik Sastry, 2026. "Pricing and Production Without the Invisible Hand," NBER Working Papers 35390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & David Sarasa & Sirenia Vazquez, 2025. "What Can 240,000 New Credit Transactions Tell Us About the Impact of NGEU Funds?," Papers 2504.01964, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    9. Bonfim, Diana & Moretti, Laura & Auer, Simone & Bandoni, Emil & Briglevics, Tamás & Ferrando, Annalisa & De Jonghe, Olivier & Kho, Stephen & Mendicino, Caterina & Rodriguez-Moreno, Maria & S. Moura, A, 2026. "Monetary policy transmission through the financial system to households," Occasional Paper Series 390, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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