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The Short Lags of Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Buda, Gergely
  • Carvalho, Vasco
  • Corsetti, Giancarlo
  • Duarte, Joao B.
  • Hansen, Stephen
  • Moura, Afonso S.
  • Ortiz, Alvaro
  • Rodrigo, Tomasa
  • Rodríguez Mora, José V
  • Silva, Guilherme A.

Abstract

We examine the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the macroeconomy at high frequency. To do so, we construct daily consumption and investment aggregates from bank transaction records and leverage administrative data on daily corporate sales and employment for Spain. We show that variables typically viewed as slow-moving, such as consumption and corporate sales, respond significantly within weeks. By contrast, aggregate employment and (monthly) consumer prices adjust only gradually. Disaggregating responses by sector, consumption category, and supply-chain distance from final demand, we find that fast demand adjustment is led by downstream sectors closely tied to consumption—especially luxury goods and durables—while upstream sectors respond more slowly but more persistently, ultimately accounting for the contraction in aggregate activity. Excess inventories accumulate first in retail and wholesale trade and only later among upstream manufacturers, reconciling the rapid adjustment of sales with the slower response of production and employment. Finally, we show that time aggregation to the quarterly frequency obscures the timing of monetary policy transmission by shifting estimated responses to longer horizons, whereas weekly and monthly aggregation preserve the patterns observed at daily frequency.

Suggested Citation

  • Buda, Gergely & Carvalho, Vasco & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Duarte, Joao B. & Hansen, Stephen & Moura, Afonso S. & Ortiz, Alvaro & Rodrigo, Tomasa & Rodríguez Mora, José V & Silva, Guilherme A., 2023. "The Short Lags of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 18022, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18022
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Buda, G & Carvalho, V. M. & Corsetti, G & Duarte, J. B. & Hansen, S. & Moura, A. S. & Ortiz, A. & Rodrigo, T. & Rodríguez Mora, J. V. & Alves da Silva, G., 2026. "The Short Lags of Monetary Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2509, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Afonso S. Moura & Gergely Buda & Vasco M. Carvalho & Giancarlo Corsetti & João B. Duarte & Stephen Hansen & Álvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Guilherme Alves da Silva, 2025. "The Short Lags of Monetary Policy," Working Papers w202501, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Guilherme Alves da Silva & Gergely Buda & Vasco M. Carvalho & Giancarlo Corsetti & João B. Duarte & Stephen Hansen & Afonso S. Moura & Alberto Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo & José V. Rodriguez Mora, 2026. "The Short Lags of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2631, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Corsi, Fulvio & Longo, Luigi & Cordoni, Francesco, 2025. "SVAR identification with nowcasted macroeconomic data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    3. S. Borağan Aruoba & Thomas Drechsel, 2024. "The Long and Variable Lags of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated Price Indices," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Corrado, Luisa & Fantozzi, Daniela & Giglioli, Simona, 2026. "Quasi-fiscal policies in times of crisis: A high-frequency data analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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