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Short and Variable Lags

Author

Listed:
  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Gergely Buda
  • Vasco M. Carvalho

Abstract

We study the transmission of monetary policy shocks using daily consumption, corporate sales andemployment series. We find that the economy responds at both short and long lags that are variablein economically significant ways. Consumption reacts in one week, reaches a local trough in onequarter, recovers, and declines again after three quarters. Sales follow a similar pattern, but theinitial drop, while delayed (one month), is deeper. In contrast, employment falls monotonically for fivequarters albeit with a smaller impact reaction. We show that these short lags are masked by timeaggregation at lower —quarterly— frequencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Giancarlo Corsetti & Gergely Buda & Vasco M. Carvalho, 2023. "Short and Variable Lags," RSCAS Working Papers 2023/22, European University Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2023/22
    as

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    Other versions of this item:

    • Carvalho, Vasco & Buda, Gergely & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Duarte, Joao B. & Hansen, Stephen & Moura, Afonso S. & Ortiz, Alvaro & Rodrigo, Tomasa & Rodríguez Mora, José V & Silva, Guilherme A., 2023. "Short and Variable Lags," CEPR Discussion Papers 18022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Buda, G. & Carvalho, V. M. & Corsetti, G. & Duarte, J. B. & Hansen, S. & Moura, A. S. & Ortiz, A. & Rodrigo, T. & Ortiz, A. & Ortiz, A., 2023. "Short and Variable Lags," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2321, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    2. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-787, October.
    3. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    4. Eraslan, Sercan & Götz, Thomas, 2021. "An unconventional weekly economic activity index for Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    5. Rodríguez Mora, José V & Buda, Gergely & Carvalho, Vasco & Hansen, Stephen & Ortiz, Alvaro & Rodrigo, Tomasa, 2022. "National Accounts in a World of Naturally Occurring Data: A Proof of Concept for Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 17519, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Daniel Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock, 2020. "U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak," NBER Working Papers 26954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. José Luis Montiel Olea & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2021. "Local Projection Inference Is Simpler and More Robust Than You Think," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(4), pages 1789-1823, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Event-study; Monetary Policy; Economic Activity; High-Frequency Data; Local Projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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