IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedbcq/2015_002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Did abnormal weather affect U.S. employment growth in early 2015?

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher L. Foote

Abstract

A current policy concern centers on how the severe winter weather experienced in some parts of the country may have affected the economy earlier this year. As of 2015:Q1, monthly payroll growth has slowed by more than 100,000 jobs compared to 2014:Q4, while GDP declined at an annual rate of 0.7 percent. To measure the potential effect of weather on recent employment growth, the author estimates a regression model using state-level employment and weather data from 1981 onward. The coefficients from this model are combined with data on recent weather to generate an estimate of how weather is likely to have affected employment growth earlier this year. The specification of the regression model builds on some recent research by Boldin and Wright (2015), who show that abnormal weather is likely to have the biggest effect on employment if it occurs on or just before the 12th day of each month, due to the timing conventions of the government's employment surveys.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher L. Foote, 2015. "Did abnormal weather affect U.S. employment growth in early 2015?," Current Policy Perspectives 15-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcq:2015_002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/current-policy-perspectives/2015/cpp1502.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael D. Boldin & Jonathan H. Wright, 2015. "Weather-adjusting employment data," Working Papers 15-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Charles Fries & François Gourio, 2020. "Adaptation and the Cost of Rising Temperature for the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series WP 2020-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Michael Boldin & Jonathan H. Wright, 2015. "Weather-Adjusting Economic Data," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 227-278.
    3. Jones, Adam T. & Ogden, Richard E., 2017. "A day late and a dollar short: The effect of policy uncertainty on fed forecast errors," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 112-122.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles Fries & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Weather Shocks and Climate Change," 2018 Meeting Papers 1159, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Erik Haustein & Sven Schreiber, 2016. "Adjusting production indices for varying weather effects," IMK Working Paper 171-2016, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Hyunju Kang & Hyunduk Suh & Jongmin Yu, 2019. "Does Air Pollution Affect Consumption Behavior? Evidence from Korean Retail Sales," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 235-251, September.
    4. Caglar Yunculer, 2015. "Estimating the Bridging Day Effect on Turkish Industrial Production," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1515, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Tom Stark, 2015. "First quarters in the national income and product accounts," Research Rap Special Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcq:2015_002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Spozio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbbous.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.