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Comunicação e política monetária no Brasil

  • Adonias Evaristo Costa Filho
  • Fabiana Rocha
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    O objetivo deste artigo é discutir o papel da comunicação na condução da política monetária do Banco Central do Brasil. Constrói-se, inicialmente, um índice que traduz a informação qualitativa contida nas atas do COPOM num índice ordenado, semelhante ao construído por Rosa e Verga (2005). Encontra-se evidência que a comunicação do COPOM é consistente no sentido de que as palavras são seguidas por ações na mesma direção. Baseado em estimativas de regras de Taylor, encontra-se também evidência de que o índice ajuda a entender a fixação da taxa de juros, justificando a prática de central bank watching.

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    File Function: First version, 2008
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    Paper provided by Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto in its series Working Papers with number 08_17.

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    Date of creation: 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:fea:wpaper:08_17
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    1. Geraats, P.M., 2001. "Why Adopt Transparency? The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," Papers 41, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    2. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2003. "Does monetary policy transparency reduce disinflation costs?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 521-540, 09.
    3. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2010. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1266-1298, December.
    4. Blinder, Alan S. & Ehrmann, Michael & de Haan, Jakob & Fratzscher, Marcel & Jansen, David-Jan, 2008. "Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence," Working Paper Series 0898, European Central Bank.
    5. Marie Musard-Gies, 2005. "Do ECB's statements steer short-term and long-term interest rates in the euro zone?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 56, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Petra M. Geraats & Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger & Carin A.B. van der Cruijsen, 2006. "Does Central Bank Transparency Reduce Interest Rates?," DNB Working Papers 085, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Gerlach, Stefan, 2004. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB: Words and Deeds," CEPR Discussion Papers 4775, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. repec:dgr:kubcen:200611 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
    10. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & de Haan, J. & Rybinski, K., 2007. "Central Bank transparency and central bank communication : Editorial introduction," Other publications TiSEM 07146cb9-d41a-4ad9-a2ef-a, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Eric T. Swanson, 2004. "Federal Reserve transparency and financial market forecasts of short-term interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-202809 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "Communication by Central Bank Committee Members: Different Strategies, Same Effectiveness?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 509-541, 03.
    14. Jansen, David-Jan & De Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Talking heads: the effects of ECB statements on the euro-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 343-361, March.
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