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The real exchange rate of the dollar for a panel of OECD countries: Balassa-Samuelson or distribution sector effect?

  • Mariam Camarero

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the role of productivity in the behaviour of the dollar real exchange rate against a group of OECD countries' currencies. To do this, a general specification is tested, paying special attention to the breakdown of the productivity variable into tradables, non-tradables and distribution sector productivity. The applied methodology relies on the Pool Mean Group estimation methodology proposed by Pesaran et al (1999) to obtain error correction models in panels without imposing equal long and shortrun parameters for the panel. The results point to the relevance of the differences in the distribution sector productivity to explain the real exchange rate, especially in the European Union countries. These results are in accordance with New Open Macroeconomics models predictions concerning the role of both distribution sector productivity and fiscal expenditure on the real exchange rate.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers on International Economics and Finance with number 06-04.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdadef:06-04
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  1. Louis Dorrance Johnston & Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks; Evidence from a Panel of 14 Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/66, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Mariam Camarero & Javier Ordóñez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2002. "The Euro-Dollar exchange rate: Is it fundamental?," European Economy Group Working Papers 16, European Economy Group.
  3. Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini & Jose De Gregorio, 1994. "International Evidenceon Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/33, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Strauss, Jack, 1999. "Productivity differentials, the relative price of non-tradables and real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 383-409.
  6. Alberola, Enrique & Tyrväinen, Timo, 1998. "Is there scope for inflation differentials in EMU : An empirical evaluation of the Balassa-Samuelsson model in EMU countries," Research Discussion Papers 15/1998, Bank of Finland.
  7. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Ricci, 2001. "PPP and the Balassa Samuelson Effect: the Role of the Distribution Sector," CESifo Working Paper Series 442, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
  9. Hsiu-Ling Wu, 1996. "Testing for the Fundamental Determinants of the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate: The Case of Taiwan," NBER Working Papers 5787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Jaewoo Lee & Man-Keung Tang, 2007. "Does Productivity Growth Appreciate the Real Exchange Rate?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 164-187, 02.
  11. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
  12. Egert, Balazs & Drine, Imed & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Rault, Christophe, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 552-572, September.
  13. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  14. Ganelli, Giovanni, 2003. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics of Government Debt," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 83, Royal Economic Society.
  15. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  16. Devereux, Michael B, 1999. "Real Exchange Rate Trends and Growth: A Model of East Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 509-21, August.
  17. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2002. "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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