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The effects of fuel price changes on the transport sector and its emissions - simulations with TREMOVE

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  • Jacques Delsalle

Abstract

When fuel prices increased in 2000, there were concerns about the impact on the transport sector. Therefore, it was considered worthwhile to simulate the effects of a significant and durable change in oil prices on transport cost, transport demand, and transport externalities. Using TREMOVE, the partial equilibrium model on the transport sector, which was developed in the context of the European Auto-Oil II Programme, this paper simulates what could happen to transport costs, transport demand and transport emissions if the low oil price or the high oil price were maintained in the long run. This work is the first use of TREMOVE in the European Commission outside its initial purpose, which was to provide cost-effectiveness analysis for the measures defined in the Auto-Oil II Programme. As the model is currently being reviewed, both the outcomes of the simulation and the problems or limits encountered, constitute valuable input for the definition of an improved version of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Delsalle, 2002. "The effects of fuel price changes on the transport sector and its emissions - simulations with TREMOVE," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 172, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0172
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying & Eom, Jiyong & Clarke, Leon E. & Kim, Son H. & Patel, Pralit L. & Yu, Sha & Kyle, G. Page, 2015. "China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 233-248.
    2. Mazlan, Zuhry & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Causality between domestic fuel price and economic sectors: evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 110682, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Pan, Xunzhang & Wang, Hailin & Wang, Lining & Chen, Wenying, 2018. "Decarbonization of China's transportation sector: In light of national mitigation toward the Paris Agreement goals," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 853-864.
    4. Mohd Shahidan Shaari & Tan Lee Pei & Hafizah Abdul Rahim, 2013. "Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Sectors in Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 360-366.
    5. Solaymani, Saeed & Kari, Fatimah, 2013. "Environmental and economic effects of high petroleum prices on transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 435-441.
    6. Y Bouchery & Jan C Fransoo, 2015. "Cost, carbon emissions and modal shift in intermodal network design decisions," Post-Print hal-01954452, HAL.
    7. Bouchery, Yann & Fransoo, Jan, 2015. "Cost, carbon emissions and modal shift in intermodal network design decisions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 388-399.

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