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An Analysis of Revisions in Indian GDP Data

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  • Amey Sapre
  • Rajeswari Sengupta

Abstract

This paper studies the revisions in the annual estimates of India's GDP data. The objective of the analysis is to understand the revision policy adopted by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) and the issues therein. Using historic data, the paper studies the magnitude and quality of revisions in the aggregate as well as the sectoral GDP series. It analyzes the computation of the sectoral revised estimates and compares the extent of revision in growth rates from the first release to the final estimate. To understand the magnitude of revisions, it computes the standard deviation of revisions in growth rates for each sector and use that to build confidence bands around the initial estimates. The confidence bands provide a means to understand the extent of variation in the final growth rate estimate, and at the same time, provide a mechanism to contain revisions. Based on the analysis, the paper highlights some of the major issues in CSO's revision policy. It outlines the possible solutions that can be implemented to improve the quality of GDP data revisions. The paper identifies the sectors with large variations in growth rates and argue that improving or changing the low quality indicators can help contain growth rate revisions and enhance the credibility of the estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Amey Sapre & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2017. "An Analysis of Revisions in Indian GDP Data," Working Papers id:12100, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:12100
    Note: Institutional Papers
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Datta, Pratik & Surya Prakash B. S. & Sane, Renuka, 2017. "Understanding Judicial Delay at the Income Tax Appellate Tribunal in India," Working Papers 17/208, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    2. Olivier Roodenburg & Ard H.J. den Reijer, 2006. "Dutch GDP Data Revisions: Are They Predictable and Where Do They Come from?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 52(4), pages 337-356.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arvind Subramanian, 2019. "India's GDP Mis-estimation: Likelihood, Magnitudes, Mechanisms, and Implications," CID Working Papers 354, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Acharya, Viral & Bhadury, Soumya & Surti, Jay, 2020. "Financial Vulnerability and Risks to Growth in Emerging Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14962, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Hazarika, Bhabesh, 2017. "Decomposition of Gender Income Gap in Rural Informal Micro-enterprises: An Unconditional Quantile Approach in the Handloom Industry," Working Papers 17/216, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    4. Radhika Pandey & Amey Sapre & Pramod Sinha, 2018. "What does the new 2011-12 IIP series tell about the Indian manufacturing sector?," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(2), pages 90-106, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; National Accounts; Revisions; annual estimate; revision policy; India; Central Statistical Organisation (CSO); sectoral GDP series; quality of revisions; growth rate; final estimate; magnitude of revisions; credibility; quality indicators.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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