On The Optimality of The Maghreb Area: An Analysis of The Macroeconomic Shocks
This paper studies the possibility of a monetary union in the Maghreb using the traditional criteria of the optimal currency areas theory. Firstly, we examine the degree of shocks correlation in order to see whether the shocks affecting Maghreb countries are symmetrical or asymmetrical. The analysis of the growth rates reveals dispersions and that of the inflation rates shows that essential efforts remain to be made with regards to monetary cooperation. By developing a structural VAR model based on the methodology of Blanchard and Quah (1989), we show that the macroeconomic shocks are rather heterogeneous in this area supporting the assumption of a relatively high dispersion of economic growth rates. However, our results reveal a relative symmetry of the supply shocks between Morocco and Tunisia.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2009|
|Date of revision:||Mar 2009|
|Publication status:||Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 21 Al-Sad Al Aaly St. Dokki, Giza|
Web page: http://www.erf.org.eg
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- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lionel Fontagné & Michael Freudenberg, 1999. "Marché unique et développement des échanges," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 326(1), pages 31-52.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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