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The U.S. business cycle, 1867-1995: dynamic factor analysis vs. reconstructed national accounts

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  • Ritschl, Albrecht
  • Sarferaz, Samad
  • Uebele, Martin

Abstract

This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 derived from diffusion indices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economic activity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which is reversed after World War II. While we can generate evidence of postwar moderation relative to pre-1914, this evidence is not robust to structural change, implemented by time-varying factor loadings. We do find evidence of moderation in the nominal series, however, and reproduce the standard result of moderation since the 1980s. Our estimates broadly confirm the NBER historical business cycle chronology as well the National Income and Product Accounts, except for World War II where they support alternative estimates of Kuznets (1952).

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  • Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. business cycle, 1867-1995: dynamic factor analysis vs. reconstructed national accounts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 22305, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:22305
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    1. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, March.
    2. John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1, March.
    3. Carter,Susan B. & Gartner,Scott Sigmund & Haines,Michael R. & Olmstead,Alan L. & Sutch,Richard & Wri (ed.), 2006. "The Historical Statistics of the United States 5 Volume Hardback Set," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817912, January.
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    5. Robert J. Gordon & John Veitch, 1986. "Fixed Investment in the American Business Cycle, 1919-83," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 267-358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Simon Kuznets & Lillian Epstein & Elizabeth Jenks, 1946. "National Income and Its Composition, 1919-1938, Volume II," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn41-3, March.
    7. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.
    8. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Front matter, The American Business Cycle. Continuity and Change," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages -15, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    10. Carol S. Carson, 1975. "The History Of The United States National Income And Product Accounts: The Development Of An Analytical Tool," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 21(2), pages 153-181, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Thomas L. Hogan, Daniel J. Smith, Robin Aguiar-Hicks, 2018. "Central Banking without Romance," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(2), pages 293-314, December.
    3. Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2015. "The emergence of a European region: business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 19(4), pages 382-411.
    4. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.

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