Strikes and gutters: biomarkers and anthropometric measures for predicting diagnosed diabetes mellitus in adults in low- and middle-income countries

Background: The management of diabetes necessitates the requirement of reliable health indices, specifically biomarkers and anthropometric measures, to detect the presence or absence of the disease. Nevertheless, limited robust empirical evidence exists regarding the optimal metrics for predicting diabetes in adults, particularly within low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates objective and subjective indices for screening diabetes in these countries. Methods: Data for this study was sourced from surveys conducted among adults (aged 18 years and above) in seventeen (17) countries. Self-reported diabetes status, fifty-four biomarkers, and twenty-six core and twenty-eight estimated anthropometric indices, including weight, waist circumference, body mass index, glycaemic triglycerides, and fasting blood glucose, were utilised to construct lasso regression models. Results: The study revealed variances in diabetes prediction outcomes across different countries. Central adiposity measures, fasting plasma glucose and glycaemic triglycerides demonstrated superior predictive capabilities for diabetes when compared to body mass index. Furthermore, fasting plasma or blood glucose, serving as a biomarker, emerged as the most accurate predictor of diabetes. Conclusions: These findings offer critical insights into both general and context-specific tools for diabetes screening. The study proposes that fasting plasma glucose and central adiposity indices should be considered as routine screening tools for diabetes, both in policy interventions and clinical practice. By identifying adults with or at higher risk of developing diabetes and implementing appropriate interventions, these screening tools possess the potential to mitigate diabetes-related complications in low- and middle-income countries.