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Pension reform in a rapidly ageing country: the case of Ukraine

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  • Lisenkova, Katerina

Abstract

Ukraine has a rapidly ageing and declining population. A dynamic forward-­looking Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with an explicitly modelled Pay As You Go pension scheme is constructed to perform simulations of different pension reform scenarios and investigate the impact of population ageing on a wide range of macroeconomic variables. It is shown that, changes in age structure will result in a significant negative impact on the economy and stability of the pension system. Analysis of the potential changes to the pension system is limited to modelling an increase of the pension age, keeping either the workers’ contribution rate or replacement rate constant.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisenkova, Katerina, 2011. "Pension reform in a rapidly ageing country: the case of Ukraine," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-37, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:278
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10943/278
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaromir Cekota & Claudia Trentini, 2012. "Demographic pressures and the sustainability of social security in Emerging Europe and Central Asia," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2012_2, UNECE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ukraine; CGE modelling; pension reform; ageing;

    JEL classification:

    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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