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The Pivotal Voter Model: Evidence from Texas Liquor Referenda

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Moro
  • Stephen Coate
  • Michael Conlin

Abstract

We use data from Texas liquor referenda to evaluate the performance of the pivotal-voter theory of voter turnout. We structurally estimate the parameters of a pivotal-voter model using the referendum data. We then use the estimates to evaluate the out of sample performance of the model. Finally, we compare the performance of the model with alternative voting models based on the group rule-utilitarian theory of turnout and on the "intensity hypothesis".

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Moro & Stephen Coate & Michael Conlin, 2004. "The Pivotal Voter Model: Evidence from Texas Liquor Referenda," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 440, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:440
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Sgouraki Kinsey & Hugh Bartling & Anne F. Peterson & Brady P. Baybeck, 2010. "Location of Public Goods and the Calculus of Voting: The Seattle Monorail Referendum," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 91(3), pages 741-761, September.
    2. Marco Battaglini & Rebecca B. Morton & Thomas R. Palfrey, 2010. "The Swing Voter's Curse in the Laboratory," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(1), pages 61-89.
    3. Hastings, Justine S. & Kane, Thomas J. & Staiger, Douglas O. & Weinstein, Jeffrey M., 2007. "The effect of randomized school admissions on voter participation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(5-6), pages 915-937, June.
    4. Ming Li & Dipjyoti Majumdar, 2010. "A Psychologically Based Model of Voter Turnout," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 12(5), pages 979-1002, October.
    5. Antonio Merlo, 2005. "Whither Political Economy? Theories, Facts and Issues," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-033, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Dec 2005.
    6. David K Levine & Andrea Mattozzi, 2016. "Voter Participation with Collusive Parties," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000001234, David K. Levine.
    7. John Duffy & Margit Tavits, 2008. "Beliefs and Voting Decisions: A Test of the Pivotal Voter Model," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(3), pages 603-618, July.
    8. John Duffy & Margit Tavits, 2006. "Beliefs and Voting Decisions: A Test of the Pivotal Voter Model," Working Paper 273, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised May 2007.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pivotal Voter model; Political Economy;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General

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