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The Pivotal Voter Model: Evidence from Texas Liquor Referenda


  • Andrea Moro
  • Stephen Coate
  • Michael Conlin


We use data from Texas liquor referenda to evaluate the performance of the pivotal-voter theory of voter turnout. We structurally estimate the parameters of a pivotal-voter model using the referendum data. We then use the estimates to evaluate the out of sample performance of the model. Finally, we compare the performance of the model with alternative voting models based on the group rule-utilitarian theory of turnout and on the "intensity hypothesis".

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Moro & Stephen Coate & Michael Conlin, 2004. "The Pivotal Voter Model: Evidence from Texas Liquor Referenda," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 440, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:440

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    More about this item


    Pivotal Voter model; Political Economy;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General


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