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Understanding Self-Fulfilling Rational Expectations Equilibria in Real Business Cycle Models

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  • Wen, Yi

    (Cornell U and Hong Kong U of Science and Technology)

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Abstract

Necessary conditions for indeterminacy in standard RBC models have been extensively studied, but intuitive understanding of the economic mechanism that generates indeterminacy has yet to be fully explored. Following the permanent income theory, this paper provides an alternative framework for understanding and deriving the technical conditions of indeterminacy in RBC models. A virtue of this approach is that in deriving the conditions of indeterminacy, one can see clearly not only how indeterminacy arises but also how robust the indeterminacy is to structural perturbations in preferences, technologies, and market structures.

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Paper provided by Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics in its series Working Papers with number 00-02.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:corcae:00-02
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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  1. Roger E.A. Farmer, 1994. "Indeterminacy and Sector-Specific Externalities," UCLA Economics Working Papers 722, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison, 1996. "Chaos, sunspots, and automatic stabilizers," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Benhabib Jess & Rustichini Aldo, 1994. "Introduction to the Symposium on Growth, Fluctuations, and Sunspots: Confronting the Data," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-18, June.
  4. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Indeterminacy, dynamic adjustment costs, and cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 213-216, May.
  5. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  6. Gali, J., 1991. "Monopolistic Competition, Business Cycles and the Composition of Aggregate Demand," Papers 92-03, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  7. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
  8. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
  9. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Can a real business cycle model pass the Watson test?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 185-203, June.
  10. Perli, Roberto, 1998. "Indeterminacy, home production, and the business cycle: A calibrated analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 105-125, February.
  11. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
  12. Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June.
  13. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October.
  14. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
  15. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
  16. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
  17. Beaudry, Paul & Devereux, Michael B., 1995. "Money and the real exchange rate with sticky prices and increasing returns," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 55-101, December.
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Cited by:

  1. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Wen, Yi, 2008. "A Note On Oil Dependence And Economic Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 717-723, November.
  2. Doshchyn, Artur & Giommetti, Nicola, 2013. "Learning, Expectations, and Endogenous Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 49617, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Yi Wen, 2011. "OPEC´s Oil Exporting Strategy and Macroeconomic (In)Stability," NIPE Working Papers 10/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  4. Jaimovich, Nir, 2008. "Income effects and indeterminacy in a calibrated one-sector growth model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 610-623, November.
  5. Jaimovich, Nir, 2007. "Firm dynamics and markup variations: Implications for sunspot equilibria and endogenous economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 300-325, November.
  6. Pintus, Patrick A., 2007. "Local determinacy with non-separable utility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 669-682, February.
  7. Luis Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2005. "Foreign trade and equilibrium indeterminacy," Working Papers 2005-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  8. Meng, Qinglai & Yip, Chong Kee, 2008. "On indeterminacy in one-sector models of the business cycle with factor-generated externalities," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 97-110, March.
  9. Yi Wen & Xin Wang, 2013. "Multiplier Effects of Government Spending: A Tale of China," 2013 Meeting Papers 214, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Cazzavillan, Guido & Pintus, Patrick A., 2006. "Capital externalities in OLG economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1215-1231, July.
  11. Meng, Qinglai, 2006. "Impatience and equilibrium indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2671-2692, December.
  12. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Imperfect competition and indeterminacy of aggregate output," Working Papers 2006-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. Guo, Jang-Ting & Harrison, Sharon G., 2001. "Indeterminacy with capital utilization and sector-specific externalities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 355-360, September.
  14. Kim, Jinill, 2005. "Does utility curvature matter for indeterminacy?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 421-429, August.
  15. Patrick-Antoine Pintus, 2009. "Local Determinacy with Non-separable Utility," Working Papers halshs-00409585, HAL.
  16. Tarek Coury & Yi Wen, 2007. "Global indeterminacy in locally determinate RBC models," Working Papers 2007-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  17. Kazuo Mino, 2008. "Preference Structure and Volatility in a Financially Integrated World," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 08-05, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).

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