Bruegel-Kiel Report - Fit for War by 2030? European Rearmament Efforts vis-à-vis Russia

This report updates and expands the data-driven work of our initial study from September 2024, which concluded that Europe would only be fit for war in several decades. We show that the situation today is even more concerning if Europe aims to be fit for war by 2030. First, Russia continues to outproduce four European countries across multiple weapon systems. We demonstrate that production must increase by a factor of around five to tilt the balance decisively in Europe’s favour. Procurement needs to accelerate and be frontloaded, as delivery delays of threeyears or more persist. Second, transatlantic tensions are weakening the strength of the U.S. security guarantee. Europe depends heavily on the U.S. not only for readily deployable troops but also for strategic enablers. While overall U.S. weapon imports are not excessive, reliance on American systems in critical modern capabilities remains a concern. Third, military strategy and technology are evolving rapidly. Military planners must modernise weapons and strategy while simultaneously scaling existing and effective systems—a major challenge for often slow and bureaucratic procurement structures. Investment in European technology is essential for modernisation. European weapons tend to be expensive due to low production volumes in a fragmented market; a focus on cost-effectiveness is vital to ensure the EU’s planned €800 billion defence spending is sufficient and fiscally sustainable.