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The Socio-Economic Effects of Teen Childbearing Re-Considered: A Re-Analysis of the Teen Miscarriage Experiment

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  • Saul D. Hoffman

    (Department of Economics, University of Delaware)

Abstract

In an important contribution to the literature on the socio-economic impacts of teen childbearing, Hotz, McElroy, and Sanders used a natural experiment based on the random occurrence of miscarriages. They concluded that teen childbearing was actually beneficial to the young women in terms of labor market outcomes and to the government in terms of net transfers. In a replication of their work, I identify a number of important errors that undermine their results. Correction and re-estimation with their data show substantially smaller impacts on income variables. Re-estimation with a new data set yields impacts that are smaller yet. The re-estimation generally does not alter the sign of the estimated effects, but does lead to a much more modest conclusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Saul D. Hoffman, 2003. "The Socio-Economic Effects of Teen Childbearing Re-Considered: A Re-Analysis of the Teen Miscarriage Experiment," Working Papers 03-08, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dlw:wpaper:03-08
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    File URL: http://graduate.lerner.udel.edu/sites/default/files/ECON/PDFs/RePEc/dlw/WorkingPapers/2003/UDWP2003-08.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saul Hoffman & Greg Duncan, 1988. "What are the economic consequences of divorce?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 25(4), pages 641-645, November.
    2. V. Joseph Hotz & Charles H. Mullin & Seth G. Sanders, 1997. "Bounding Causal Effects Using Data from a Contaminated Natural Experiment: Analysing the Effects of Teenage Childbearing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 575-603.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jason M. Fletcher & Barbara L. Wolfe, 2009. "Education and Labor Market Consequences of Teenage Childbearing: Evidence Using the Timing of Pregnancy Outcomes and Community Fixed Effects," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    2. Dinand Webbink & Nicholas Martin & Peter Visscher, 2011. "Does teenage childbearing reduce investment in human capital?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 701-730, April.
    3. Jason Fletcher, 2012. "The effects of teenage childbearing on the short- and long-term health behaviors of mothers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 201-218, January.
    4. Adam Ashcraft & Kevin Lang, 2006. "The Consequences of Teenage Childbearing," NBER Working Papers 12485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Webbink, Dinand & Martin, Nicholas G. & Visscher, Peter M., 2008. "Does teenage childbearing increase smoking, drinking and body size?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 888-903, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Teen Fertility;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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