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A Bayesian parametric model to estimate and reconstruct male age-specific fertility rates

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin-Samuel Schlueter

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Schoumaker Bruno
  • Monica J. Alexander

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Research on human fertility has primarily focused on women, with male fertility remaining underexplored. The biggest differences in timing and magnitude between male and female fertility is observed in the Global South, where data on male fertility is not widely available. In this project we propose a Bayesian parametric model to estimate and reconstruct male fertility rates for countries with no civil registration and vital statistics systems for past, present, and future periods. We draw on data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) from various countries. The statsitical model we propose, whch centers on a skewed-Normal distribution, accounts for missing data, small samples, and data quality issues. The model is flexible enough to capture variations in male age-specific fertility rates across different populations and periods. The approach also allows reconstructing estimates for years without data and incorporating sampling errors from surveys. This research will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of male fertility trends and provide essential inputs for modeling kinship structures, orphanhood, and conducting indirect mortality estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin-Samuel Schlueter & Schoumaker Bruno & Monica J. Alexander, 2026. "A Bayesian parametric model to estimate and reconstruct male age-specific fertility rates," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2026-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-006
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2026-006
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paraskevi Peristera & Anastasia Kostaki, 2007. "Modeling fertility in modern populations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(6), pages 141-194.
    2. Stefano Mazzuco & Lucia Zanotto, 2025. "Tempo effects in period TFR: Inspecting the role of shape and scale variations in a cohort model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 52(19), pages 559-588.
    3. Bruno Schoumaker, 2019. "Male Fertility Around the World and Over Time: How Different is it from Female Fertility?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(3), pages 459-487, September.
    4. Bruno Schoumaker, 2017. "Measuring male fertility rates in developing countries with Demographic and Health Surveys: An assessment of three methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(28), pages 803-850.
    5. Monica Alexander & Leontine Alkema, 2018. "Global estimation of neonatal mortality using a Bayesian hierarchical splines regression model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(15), pages 335-372.
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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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