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Stochastic forecast of the population of Poland, 2005 – 2050

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  • Anna Matysiak

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Beata Nowok

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Forecasting the population of Poland is very challenging. Firstly, the country has been undergoing rapid demographic changes. In the 1990s, Poland experienced a fundamental shift from a communist regime to a democratic regime and entered the European Union in 2004. The political, economic, and social changes that accompanied the transformation had a profound influence on the demographic patterns in this country. International migration has been one of the first consequences of Poland’s entry into the EU, and it is expected to increase in the future. Secondly, the availability of statistics for Poland on past trends is strongly limited. The resulting high uncertainty of future trends should be dealt with systematically, which is an essential part of the stochastic forecast. In this article, we present to the best of our knowledge a first stochastic forecast of the population of Poland. The forecast constitutes a valuable alternative to considering various scenarios that have been applied so far. The forecast results show that the Polish population will constantly decline during the next decades. There is a probability of 50 % that in 2050 the population will number between 27 and 35 millions compared to 38.2 in 2004. Besides, Poland will face significant ageing as indicated by a rising old-age dependency-ratio. In 45 years, there will be at least 63 persons aged 65+ per 100 persons aged 19-64, and this with a probability of 50 %. A description of the most important limitations to the official Polish demographic statistics and an analysis of past trends in fertility, mortality, and international migration are important by-products of this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Matysiak & Beata Nowok, 2006. "Stochastic forecast of the population of Poland, 2005 – 2050," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-026
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2006-026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham, 2004. "Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area," Discussion Papers 386, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    2. Góra, Marek, 2005. "Pension Expenditure as the Part of GDP: Social Security vs. Economic Growth," Discussion Paper 265, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alho, Juha, 2008. "Aggregation across countries in stochastic population forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 343-353.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poland; population forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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