IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dbl/dblwop/843.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Crash of Ponzi Schemes

Author

Listed:
  • Cortés, Darwin
  • Santamaría, Julieth
  • Vargas, Juan

Abstract

In November 2008, Colombian authorities dismantled a network of Ponzi schemes, making hundreds of thousands of investors lose tens of millions of dollars throughout the country. Using original data on the geographical incidence of the Ponzi schemes, this paper estimates the impact of their break down on crime. We find that the crash of Ponzi schemes differentially exacerbated crime in affected districts. Confirming the intuition of the standard economic model of crime, this effect is only present in places with relatively weak judicial and law enforcement institutions, and with little access to consumption smoothing mechanisms such as microcredit. In addition, we show that, with the exception of economically-motivated felonies such as robbery, violent crime is not affected by the negative shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Cortés, Darwin & Santamaría, Julieth & Vargas, Juan, 2016. "Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Crash of Ponzi Schemes," Research Department working papers 843, CAF Development Bank Of Latinamerica.
    • Handle: RePEc:dbl:dblwop:843
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://scioteca.caf.com/handle/123456789/843
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1993. "Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investment in Bullocks in India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 223-244, April.
    3. Mr. Christopher J. Jarvis, 1999. "The Rise and Fall of the Pyramid Schemes in Albania," IMF Working Papers 1999/098, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Stephen P. Zeldes, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 275-298.
    5. Rafael Di Tella & Ricardo Perez-Truglia & Andres Babino & Mariano Sigman, 2015. "Conveniently Upset: Avoiding Altruism by Distorting Beliefs about Others' Altruism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3416-3442, November.
    6. Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
    7. Mehlum, Halvor & Miguel, Edward & Torvik, Ragnar, 2006. "Poverty and crime in 19th century Germany," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 370-388, May.
    8. Dercon, Stefan, 1998. "Wealth, risk and activity choice: cattle in Western Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 1-42, February.
    9. F. Daniel Hidalgo & Suresh Naidu & Simeon Nichter & Neal Richardson, 2010. "Economic Determinants of Land Invasions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 505-523, August.
    10. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    11. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    12. Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote, 1999. "Why Is There More Crime in Cities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 225-258, December.
    13. Mark J. Garmaise & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2006. "Bank Mergers and Crime: The Real and Social Effects of Credit Market Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 495-538, April.
    14. Lorenzo Guarcello & Fabrizia Mealli & Furio Rosati, 2010. "Household vulnerability and child labor: the effect of shocks, credit rationing, and insurance," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 169-198, January.
    15. Sekhri, Sheetal & Storeygard, Adam, 2014. "Dowry deaths: Response to weather variability in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 212-223.
    16. Leopoldo Fergusson & Juan F. Vargas & Mauricio A. Vela, 2013. "Sunlight Disinfects? Free Media in Weak Democracies," Documentos CEDE 10487, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    17. Morse, Adair, 2011. "Payday lenders: Heroes or villains?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 28-44, October.
    18. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
    19. Edward Miguel, 2005. "Poverty and Witch Killing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(4), pages 1153-1172.
    20. Larson, Donald F. & Plessmann, Frank, 2009. "Do farmers choose to be inefficient? Evidence from Bicol," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 24-32, September.
    21. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-565, May-June.
    22. Jacqueline M. Drew & Michael E. Drew, 2010. "The Identification of Ponzi Schemes: Can a Picture Tell a Thousand Frauds?," Discussion Papers in Finance finance:201008, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Corvalan, Alejandro & Pazzona, Matteo, 2019. "Persistent commodity shocks and transitory crime effects," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 110-127.
    2. Gaurav Khanna & Carlos Medina & Anant Nyshadham & Jorge Tamayo & Nicolas Torres, 2023. "Formal Employment and Organised Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(654), pages 2427-2448.
    3. Sebastián García-Andrade, 2019. "Efectos del rebalanceo de los índices de J.P. Morgan en 2014 sobre los rendimientos de los TES en moneda local," Borradores de Economia 1094, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Okedina, Jellil & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "The nexus between poverty and crime: evidence from India," MPRA Paper 109263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Eduardo Ferraz & Rodrigo Soares & Juan Vargas, 2022. "Unbundling the relationship between economic shocks and crime," Chapters, in: Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Vanin & Juan Vargas (ed.), A Modern Guide to the Economics of Crime, chapter 8, pages 184-204, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Brüderle, Mirjam Anna & Peters, Jörg & Roberts, Gareth, 2022. "Weather and crime: Cautious evidence from South Africa," Ruhr Economic Papers 940, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Hofstetter, Marc & Mejía, Daniel & Rosas, José Nicolás & Urrutia, Miguel, 2018. "Ponzi schemes and the financial sector: DMG and DRFE in Colombia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 18-33.
    8. Fone, Zachary S. & Friedson, Andrew I. & Lipton, Brandy & Sabia, Joseph J., 2020. "The Dependent Coverage Mandate Took a Bite Out of Crime," IZA Discussion Papers 12968, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Prabhat Mittal & Amrita Kaur & Pankaj Kumar Gupta, 2021. "The Mediating Role of Big Data to Influence Practitioners to Use Forensic Accounting for Fraud Detection," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 47-58.
    10. Gao,Nan & Ma,Yuanyuan & Xu,L. Colin, 2020. "Credit Constraints and Fraud Victimization : Evidence from a Representative Chinese Household Survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9460, The World Bank.
    11. Jawadi, Fredj & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Idi Cheffou, Abdoulkarim & Augustine, Anish, 2021. "Does higher unemployment lead to greater criminality? Revisiting the debate over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 448-471.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2022. "Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2021. "Murder nature weather and violent crime in Brazil," Discussion Papers 2021/2, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Corvalan, Alejandro & Pazzona, Matteo, 2019. "Persistent commodity shocks and transitory crime effects," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 110-127.
    4. Bignon, Vincent & Caroli, Eve & Galbiati, Roberto, 2011. "Stealing to Survive: Crime and Income Shocks in 19th Century France," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1111, CEPREMAP, revised Feb 2013.
    5. Sekhri, Sheetal & Storeygard, Adam, 2014. "Dowry deaths: Response to weather variability in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 212-223.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7249 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bartoš, Vojtěch, 2021. "Seasonal scarcity and sharing norms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 303-316.
    8. Masahiro Shoji, 2018. "Religious Fractionalisation and Crimes in Disaster-Affected Communities: Survey Evidence from Bangladesh," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(10), pages 1891-1911, October.
    9. Boxell, Levi, 2019. "Droughts, conflict, and the African slave trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 774-791.
    10. Jeffrey R. Bloem, 2019. "Good Intentions Gone Bad? The Dodd-Frank Act and Conflict in Africa’s Great Lakes Region," HiCN Working Papers 300, Households in Conflict Network.
    11. Satadru Das & Naci Mocan, 2020. "Analyzing The Impact Of The World'S Largest Public Works Project On Crime," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1167-1182, July.
    12. Nikhil Jha, 2021. "No time for crime? The effect of compulsory engagement on youth crime," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(6), pages 1571-1597, December.
    13. Buonanno, Paolo & Vargas, Juan F., 2019. "Inequality, crime, and the long run legacy of slavery," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 539-552.
    14. Lakshmi Iyer & Petia Topalova, 2014. "Poverty and Crime: Evidence from Rainfall and Trade Shocks in India," Harvard Business School Working Papers 14-067, Harvard Business School, revised Aug 2014.
    15. David B. Mustard, 2010. "Labor Markets and Crime: New Evidence on an Old Puzzle," Chapters, in: Bruce L. Benson & Paul R. Zimmerman (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Crime, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    17. Entorf, Horst & Spengler, Hannes, 2000. "Socioeconomic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German states," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 75-106, March.
    18. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Merlo, Antonio & Rupert, Peter, 2000. "On the Political Economy of Income Redistribution and Crime," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 1-25, February.
    19. Milo Bianchi & Paolo Buonanno & Paolo Pinotti, 2012. "Do Immigrants Cause Crime?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(6), pages 1318-1347, December.
    20. Austin L. Wright, 2016. "Economic Shocks and Rebel," HiCN Working Papers 232, Households in Conflict Network.
    21. Blesse, Sebastian & Diegmann, André, 2022. "The place-based effects of police stations on crime: Evidence from station closures," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economía; Investigación socioeconómica; Sector financiero; Seguridad;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • N26 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • P46 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dbl:dblwop:843. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pablo Rolando (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cafffve.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.