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Des outils pour la simulation économique : Jan Tinbergen et l’émergence des modèles structurels (1935-1940)

Author

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  • Eric CHANCELLIER

    (ESG, Paris)

Abstract

Nous proposons d'analyser l'un des premiers outils de simulation en économie au travers les travaux de Tinbergen entre 1935 et 1940 au sein de la Société des Nations. Précisément, Tinbergen développe l'utilisation des modèles structurels destinés à la simulation économique. Nous constaterons dans une première partie la volonté de Tinbergen de simuler le mouvement économique en testant statistiquement les théories économiques des cycles. Ainsi, Tinbergen est à la recherche d'un système de fonctions dont la structure est basée sur des théories économiques. Ce système est considéré par Tinbergen comme faisant office de machine permettant alors un second niveau de simulation développée dans la deuxième partie de l'article. Précisément, la machine ainsi constituée permet des simulations de scénarios de politiques économiques. Tinbergen élabore une machine expérimentale qui lui permet de considérer à la fois des scénarios de politiques conjoncturelles et structurelles.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric CHANCELLIER, 2007. "Des outils pour la simulation économique : Jan Tinbergen et l’émergence des modèles structurels (1935-1940)," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2007033, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2007033
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    File URL: http://sites.uclouvain.be/econ/DP/REL/2007033.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 696-715, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cycles économiques; simulation économique; histoire de la modélisation;

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies

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