IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ctl/louvir/1994015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Interest Rates Responsible for Unemployment in the Eighties ? A Bayesian Analysis of Cointegrated Relationship with a Regime Shift

Author

Listed:
  • de la Croix, David

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) ; Belgian National Fund for Scientific Research (FNRS))

  • Lubrano, Michel

    (GREQE-CNRS, Marseille)

Abstract

To what extent can the persistence of very high unemployment rates in most of the European countries be attributed to the presence of high real interest rates ? This question, essentially addressed by the ‘customer market’ price)setting school, was very much debated in Europe these last years. It is empirically analysed for four European economies (Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany) and the USA in our paper. We use a bivariate cointegrating Var model with one endogenous breaking point between unemployment and real interest rate. Within this model and devising a new Bayesian approach, the weak and strong exogeneity of the interest rate is tested. For the four European countries the model is shown to be cointegrating providing a break point is allowed . The four posterior densities of the breaking point are very similar, when the classical estimates give more divergent and counter-intuitive information. For the four countries, the real interest rate is weakly exogenous, providing support to the hypothesis of long run causation of interest rates on unemployment after 1974. Short term causation is verified for only three countries.

Suggested Citation

  • de la Croix, David & Lubrano, Michel, 1994. "Are Interest Rates Responsible for Unemployment in the Eighties ? A Bayesian Analysis of Cointegrated Relationship with a Regime Shift," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1994015, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:1994015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rubinstein, Ariel, 1982. "Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 97-109, January.
    2. Roth, Alvin E, 1985. "A Note on Risk Aversion in a Perfect Equilibrium Model of Bargaining," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 207-211, January.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    4. repec:bla:restud:v:57:y:1990:i:1:p:99-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    6. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1992. "On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(2), pages 187-207, May.
    7. Bogaert, H. & de Biolley, T. & Verlinden, J., 1991. "L'ajustement des salaires face aux chocs pétroliers et les réponses de la politique économique," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1991008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    8. repec:fpb:wpaper:53 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 87-121.
    10. Alogoskoufis, George & Manning, Alan, 1991. "Tests of alternative wage employment bargaining models with an application to the UK aggregate labour market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 23-37, January.
    11. Dalmazzo, Alberto, 1992. "Outside options in a bargaining model with decay in the size of the cake," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 417-421, December.
    12. Stephen Nickell & Sushil Wadhwani, 1991. "Employment Determination in British Industry: Investigations Using Micro-Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(5), pages 955-969.
    13. Manning, Alan, 1987. "An Integration of Trade Union Models in a Sequential Bargaining Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(385), pages 121-139, March.
    14. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    15. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
    2. Jean-Pierre Urbain & Franz Palm & David de la Croix, 2000. "Labor market dynamics when effort depends on wage growth comparisons," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 393-419.
    3. Gael Martin, 2001. "Bayesian Analysis Of A Fractional Cointegration Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 217-234.
    4. de la Croix, David & Fagnart, Jean-Francois, 1995. "Underemployment of production factors in a forward-looking model," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 131-159, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:1994015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anne DAVISTER-LOGIST). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iruclbe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.