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Consumer Price Perceptions and Expectations


  • Simmons, Peter

    (University of York)

  • Weiserbs, Daniel

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))


This paper attempts to examine the characteristics of the quarterly EEC consumer anticipations survey for inflation in the U.K. Using a variant of Pesaran’s approach, we investigate whether the survey data satisfies certain reasonable postulates mainly arising from the assumption of unbiasedness ? We also show that it contains some relevant information not in past rates and therefore that it permits to improve and index of aggregate expected inflation obtained by extrapolative time techniques. With a probabilistic model, we identify such information largely with interest rate changes and with respondents perception of past inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Simmons, Peter & Weiserbs, Daniel, 1990. "Consumer Price Perceptions and Expectations," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1990011, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:1990011

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1985. "Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(2), pages 529-538.
    2. Philippe Michel, 1986. "Dynamique de l'accumulation de capital en présence de contraintes de débouchés," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 2, pages 117-145.
    3. repec:adr:anecst:y:1986:i:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:adr:anecst:y:1986:i:2:p:05 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dreze, Jacques & Bean, Charles R, 1990. " European Unemployment: Lessons from a Multicountry Econometric Study," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(2), pages 135-165.
    6. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    7. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Consumers' Inflation Expectations And Monetary Policy In Europe," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(2), pages 122-132, April.
    2. Peter, Eckley, 2015. "(Non)rationality of consumer inflation perceptions," MPRA Paper 77082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ranyard, Rob & Missier, Fabio Del & Bonini, Nicolao & Duxbury, Darren & Summers, Barbara, 2008. "Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 378-400, August.
    4. Jan Marc Berk & Gerbert Hebbink, 2006. "The anchoring of European inflation expectations," DNB Working Papers 116, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. Yuxiang, Karl & Chen, Zhongchang, 2010. "Monetary policy credibility and inflationary expectation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 487-497, August.
    6. Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Gärling, Tommy & Gamble, Amelie & Christandl, Fabian, 2013. "Income increases do not compensate for perceived inflation—A price-consumption anomaly," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 11-15.

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    consumption; inflation;


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