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Predicting strategic change of public research institutions under unstable negative growth

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to forecast and analyse, by a demographic perspective, the organizational behaviour of public research labs. The research focuses on the biggest Italian public research body. Demographic models of growth, based on different human resource policies, show the uncertain and retrogressive evolutionary change of Italian public research bodies that would halve their research personnel over the forecast horizon. These results provide vital information to the public management about the weaknesses and environmental threats in order to support decisions for improving the strategic change and survival of public research institutions over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Coccia, 2009. "Predicting strategic change of public research institutions under unstable negative growth," CERIS Working Paper 200909, Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY -NOW- Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
  • Handle: RePEc:csc:cerisp:200909
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    1. R. D. Banker & A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper, 1984. "Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(9), pages 1078-1092, September.
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    Keywords

    Organizational Studies; Forecasting; Public Research Institutions; Internal Demography;

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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