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Still Waters, Rapid Currents: Early Labor Market Transformation under Generative AI

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  • Anders Humlum
  • Emilie Vestergaard

Abstract

We study the early labor market impacts of AI chatbots by linking large-scale adoption surveys to administrative labor market records in Denmark. We document rapid currents: most employers in exposed occupations have adopted chatbot initiatives, workers report productivity benefits, and new AI-related tasks are widespread. Yet these currents have not broken the surface: using difference-in-differences, we estimate precise null effects on earnings and recorded hours at both the worker and workplace levels, ruling out effects larger than 2% two years after the launch of ChatGPT. What moves is the structure of work: employers absorb AI through task reorganization-including new tasks in content generation, AI oversight, and AI integration-and adopters transition into higher-paying occupations where AI chatbots are more relevant, though still too few to move average earnings. Technological change reshapes work well before it surfaces in earnings or hours.

Suggested Citation

  • Anders Humlum & Emilie Vestergaard, 2026. "Still Waters, Rapid Currents: Early Labor Market Transformation under Generative AI," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26078, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:26078
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    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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